Carl Johan von Seth: Acute TrumpDEPP is the biggest threat to Swedish economy
How is it going for the Swedish economy in all this world chaos?
We had a shy recovery at the end of last year that now seems to have been scared away. The Swedish economy was basically still during the first quarter of the year, according to recent figures from Statistics Sweden.
But it is really too early to see any real effects of the total customs circus and stock market turmoil that have characterized the past month. Swedish large companies operate Above all, confused.
Exactly how the situation affects sales and production and what rings on the water it gives in our economy will be noticed soon. So far, the indications do not point in any cheerful direction.
No, what does it really lead to this uncertainty?
The most dramatic effect is seen in the mood among households. The National Institute of Economic Research takes the temperature regularly, and new measurement values show that a deep Trumpdepp has hit the claws in the Swedes.
From a normal intermediate position as late as November, the overall household indicator has collapsed to the same low levels as the 2008 financial crisis. In these measurements, people will answer if they feel it is time to buy a new car, change housing and, for example, if they worry about getting rid of the job.
In almost all areas, a quick shift is marked in a pessimistic direction. It also has significance for the activity in the economy.
Should you worry about inflation again?
The National Institute of Economic Research’s measurements show that many do. The Swedes’ inflation expectations have risen steeply in recent months. The companies also believe in more price increases than normal in the future.
But like everything else right now, the very near future is unusually uncertain. In fact, the trade war must not lead to higher inflation in Sweden. In fact, several things point to lower inflation.
Not least, the krona has been strengthened quite strongly against the dollar, which gives a certain discount on much of our imports. Many commodity prices, including the oil price, have dropped over the past month.
Many also believe in rising interest rates, but in the past month they have dropped on the contrary. In some questions, it seems that Swedish households have taken out a lot of misery in advance.
READ MORE: Trump’s customs circus causes export giants to grope in the dark
