Cardinal Hollerich moves up slightly on the bets

In numerous online betting offices, users have been able to complete bets on the future Pope in the past few weeks. The conclave has been running since Wednesday, in which the body of the cardinals locked up in the Sistine chapel in Rome will choose a successor to the late Pope Francis. Some providers can no longer be given any tips because the race has already started.

But in addition to the traditional bookmakers, forecast markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi also offer the opportunity to rely on the outcome of the pope election. In contrast to bookmakers, there are no defined quotas for forecast markets, but the quota results from the interaction of supply and demand. So you don’t bet against the bookmaker, but against other providers.

Probability of less than one percent, but …

While Kalshi, the chances that the Luxembourg Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich could be the next Pope, is currently only less than 1: 100 after the third ballot, there was a slight trend with a view of Luxembourg. Hollerich is currently only trading there with a likelihood of a good 0.8 percent, but Polymarket had no shield until a few days ago. Or: it was not possible to rely on the Catholic Church head of the Grand Duchy. And that is different now – if only with a low probability.

However, no one can deliver reliable forecasts about the future Pope outside the Sistine Chapel. There are favorites, such as the Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70) from northern Italy, or Luis Antonio Tagle (67), most famous Cardinal. However, it could be that a completely different candidate with the best prospects will increase in the next ballot in the late afternoon. In any case, hardly anyone had expected the predecessor Francis in the run -up to the conclusion in 2013.

That alone does not make a choice of Hollerich more likely, but shows that for the choice of a Pope, forecasts are far more difficult than in political elections. However, the Luxembourg’s opportunities could increase if the different camps cannot agree on one of the favorites. Then it would be possible that it will amount to a compromise candidate. And according to some experts, Jean-Claude Hollerich could be such a candidate. But that too is only pure speculation.