Canadian conservatives yearn for change – but Trump makes their path to power

Hundreds of people flow at a convention center in Brampon, a suburb of the Canadian metropolis of Toronto. The parking area is overcrowded; Cars are moving to the streets of an adjacent new -build neighborhood that has only risen on the edge of Brampton, one of the fastest growing cities in Canada. Under loud SoftRock music, guests fill the event hall, a brightly lit space with a few huge Canadian flags.

« Bring It Home! ”, The crowd, pending their political hero: Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. As far as they are concerned, he must put an end to the ten-year regime of the Liberal Party in the elections on 28 April, until recently led by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Because at that time Canada is in their eyes in their eyes, in their eyes, in their eyes, in their eyes.

« The country is no longer the same as where I have come, » says Ravi Hooda, a forties who emigrated to Canada from India in 2003, like many residents of Brampton. He came to the rally with his two teenagers. « Crime has risen, we no longer feel safe. Inflation has gone through the roof, houses are priceless. »

As far as Hooda is concerned, it was a big mistake to choose the liberals.  » Poilievre and the conservatives will rule with ‘common sense’, he believes: « Anti-woke, lower taxes, help ordinary people, fight crime. That is why we are here to support Pierre. »

Political attacker

Poilievre (pronounced ‘poly-EV’) pulls full halls with his rallies around those themes, under the name ‘Canada First’. The 45-year-old professional politician, introduced by his wife as « our next prime minister », stands up in a blue tailor-made suit. « Who is ready to vote for change? » He shouts, under loud cheers. « Can we afford a fourth term for the liberals, with rising costs and crime and a weakened economy? Or is it time for change, with a new conservative government, to lower taxes, build houses and make our country stronger? »

Until a few months ago it was a message that would almost certainly have given him a resounding victory in the elections. Since 2023, the conservatives had a major lead in the polls on the ruling liberals of Trudeau, who was struggling with waning popularity, partly due to the perception that his government reacted too slowly to the inflation crisis after the pandemic. Economic growth in Canada has also lagged behind in recent years.

Since Poilievre In 2022, the opposition leader becameas a fierce political attacker in parliament, he managed to mercilessly increase the dissatisfaction of Canadians about Trudeau. His aggressive strategy of simple slogans with angry tone was great success: the lead of the conservatives rose to a constant 20 to 25 percentage points last year. A monster victory seemed to be unable to escape Poilievre.

Nevertheless, Poilievre is conducting a rear -guard fight in the current election campaign. Because since the end of last year, the political landscape in Canada has been thoroughly shaken – and Poilievre has great difficulty in finding its way.

Threats

That is above all by Donald Trump. The US President unleashed a trade war against Canada, which threatens to dump the country’s economy into a recession. Trump also expressed threats to the address of the Noorderburen for months, which he would like to incorporate as a ’51st state’ – to the anger of many Canadians.

Moreover, after rising pressure, Trudeau announced his resignation at the beginning of January. In March he was succeeded as party leader and prime minister by Mark Carney, former president of the Canadian and the British central bank. With his experience – he helped Canada by leading the financial crisis, and the UK through the Brexit – promises Carney to protect the country from the Trumpstorm. With an amazing effect: after a startling revolution in the polls The conservatives under Poilievre to his frustration have been 5 to 6 percentage points behind the Liberals of Carney for weeks now.

The threats of Trump have completely changed the use of the elections, says Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary, by telephone. « It’s no longer about a look back at the liberal government policy, but about who can handle the new challenges best as Prime Minister. Carney is very strong in the polls, better than Poilievre. »

The challenge for Poilievre is that he reminds Canadian voters of Trump, at a time when many voters need an anti-Trump. The qualities that made him a successful opposition leader, such as fiery, polarizing attacks on Trudeau and the media, just emit many voters. « In the eyes of some potential voters, Poilievre is too close to Trump and his kind of populism, and that has evoked doubts, » says Williams.

‘Maple Maga’

Poilievre does not speak open support for Trump and he condemns his taxes on Canadian goods, but part of his supporters has sympathy for the American president. That brings Poilievre to a difficult position: if he was positive about Trump, he would not have a chance to win the elections. But criticism of Trump does not harvest little enthusiasm among a part of his supporters, and moderate voters does not sound credible.

Because until recently, Poilievre cultivated a populist image – and was considered a foreman of so -called ‘Maple Maga’, a Canadian version of Trumpism. Like this In 2022 he supported the controversial ‘Freedom Convoy’ From truck drivers against Corona Disputors, a protest that degenerated into a week-long blockade of the capital Ottawa and could count on support from Trump supporters in the US.

Like Trump, Poilievre depicts the media as an enemy. He attracted a lot of interest in 2023 A request to Twitternow X, to regard the public broadcaster CBC as ‘Government-Funded Media’, whatever happened for a short time. Poilievre rejected this important Canadian news source as « Trudeau propaganda » and wants to dismantle the broadcaster. He prefers to speak with Ultrarrecht Media as Rebel News and gave An extensive interview To the controversial conservative psychologist Jordan Peterson.

Also in other areas Poilievre looks like Trump, as the liberals showed in an advertisement With fragments of both. His often repeated message that Canada is ‘broken’ is a direct echo of what Trump says about the US – and does not connect to feelings of patriotism that revive in Canada in response to the threats of the US president. And recently he could not let Carney, because of his experience in the financial sector, to be called a ‘scam’ – the kind of personal attack that scares Canadian voters.

Unrest

At the Rally in Brampton, supporters of Poilievre are emphasized on Trump. « The media make Canadians versus Trump of it, » says Hooda. « I don’t see Trump as an issue. Leaders have to negotiate, that’s what Trump does for his country. But Trump has not ensured that our dollar is only worth 69 (US) cent, he has not let in four million immigrants, he has not increased taxes or introduced a carbon price, he did not rise for inflation and our prices. »

Within the conservative party, unrest has broken out about the fact that Poilievre has not adapted his campaign to the crisis that Canada is faced with. He takes the election campaign he wanted to take against Trudeau and says little about Trump.

If Poilievre does not book a breakthrough in suburbs like Brampton, a national victory is unlikely. « I can’t do it at all, » says John Ball, a passer -by in the center of Brampton, about Poilievre. « I don’t think he’s guts to compete against Trump, they are cut from the same wood. »

At the Rally in Brampton, supporters of Poilievre hold the courage. « I don’t trust the polls, » says Anslette Shetty, a resident of Brampon who immigrated from India thirty years ago. She holds a sign with the word ‘change’. Inflation, employment and crime are concerned, not Trump. « I hope what Poilievre promises, really makes the difference. »

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