Campi Flegrei, evacuating everyone? 72 hours would be needed and only in case of eruption
550 thousand citizens residing in the red area, but it could be 800 thousand. All critical issues: from the escape routes to the flop exercises
« I don’t want to count the dead and to avoid it you need responsibility». The head of the national civil protection Fabio Ciciliano, during an interview with La Stampa, reiterates it with the usual frankness. In the Flegrei Campi the situation of bradisism is very concerned with the government, to the point that the declaration of national emergency state It is around the corner. To keep the authorities on the thorns is not for now the volcanic risk, since Francesca Bianco, head of the Ingv Vulcan Department, repeats: « There are no evidence of the skiing of Magma in the first 4 kilometers ». The effects of the continuous earthquake shocks on the private building heritage of populous municipalities such as Pozzuoli, Bacoli and some Western neighborhoods of Naples (Bagnoli, Agnano, Fuorigrotta) are concerned. Therefore the invitation that is addressed to the residents is to let the technicians responsible for the controls to the buildings enter. Also because the law does not provide for the evacuation of residents for seismic risk. Nobody is able to predict earthquakes, therefore a mass evacuation cannot be planned on an unpredictable circumstance, as the Civil Protection Minister in Musumeci often also recalled.
On the other hand, the discourse on the dangers related to a possible recovery of volcanic activity is different. In this case, since 2013, the experts of the great risks commission have developed an intervention and evacuation plan that has been updated over the years.
Half a million people away in 72 hours
The plan for the evacuation of the Flegrei Campi in case of erutive risk It represents one of the most complex challenges ever implemented by the Italian Civil Protection, but also a unicum worldwide. In human history there are no precedents: In fact, no more than 550 thousand people have never moved away from a territory having 72 hours, in practice no more than three days before the eruption. These are those who live in the red area, the one where the maximum destruction of a possible eruption is expected and where pyroclastic flows would destroy most of the life forms. But, on closer inspection, the challenge would be even more difficult. In fact, the plan provides for the possibility that to the 550 thousand residents in the red zone to be evacuated before the eruption, they should then be added in the following days another 800 thousand people living in the yellow area and whose homes could collapse under the weight of the volcanic ashes that would be deposited on the roofs. In short, a scenario that calling complicated is an euphemism.
The map of the volcanic emergency
In detail: there is a national emergency planning map in the Flegrea area. The map concerning the territory affected by volcanic risk is divided into two areas: red and yellow. The red zone is the one affected by the preventive evacuation of the population in the event of alarm to prevent residents from being invested by pyroclastic flows. As mentioned, it concerns about 500 thousand inhabitants. It is a fairly large area that includes the municipalities of Pozzuoli, Bacoli, Monte di Procida, Marano (in part), Giugliano (in part), fourth. In addition, some neighborhoods of the city of Naples: Bagnoli, Soccavo, Fuorigrotta, Plain, Chiaia, Posillipo, Arenella (part), Vomero (part), Chiaiano (part).
The red zone
The Plan provides that using escape routes already identified, the inhabitants of the municipalities and neighborhoods included in the red area are removed, the one deemed of maximum risk. Waiting areas have been identified for residents who chose to move away with the means made available by the organizational machine of the Civil Protection, as well as escape routes for those who choose to move away using their own means. Six meeting areas located outside the red zone would allow residents to reach (via Pullman, train or ship the regions or autonomous provinces).
The twinning
Pozzuoli in Lombardy, Bacoli in Umbria and Marche, Monte di Procida in Abruzzo and Molise, Quarto-Toscana, Chiaia and Posillipo in Sicily, Arenella in Veneto, Vomero between Piedmont and Val d’Aosta, Chiaiano in Friuli, Stoccavo in Emilia Romagna, Plain in Puglia, Bagnoli in Basilicata and Calabria, Fuorigrotta in Lazio, Marano in Liguria, Giugliano in Trento, Bolzano. In the twin regions, structures capable of welcoming the displaced people should already have been identified.
The yellow area
The evacuation plan for volcanic risk of the Campi Flegrei also includes a yellow area, on the edge of the red one. It is an area that in case of eruption could be exposed, according to experts, to the significant relapse of volcanic ashes. For this area, the temporary removal of the population may therefore be necessary to prevent there from being victims due to the collapse of the roofs of the buildings under the weight of the volcanic ash. In this case, according to planning, residents should be temporarily transferred after the conclusion of the transfer of those of the red zone, that is, after the 72 hours planned. In the yellow area, about 800 thousand people reside, therefore a very large number of citizens in areas with high population density. The yellow area is made up of the municipalities of Villaricca, Marano, Calvizzano, Mugnano, Melito, Casavatore and the neighborhoods of Naples Arenella (part), lawyer, bar, chiaia (part), market, market, montecalvario, pendino, piscinola, poggioreale, porto, San Carlo alla Arena, San Ferdinando, San Giovanni a Teduccio, San Lorenzo, San Pietnzo, San Pietnzo, San Pietnzo. Patierno, Scampia, Secondigliano, Stella, Vicaria, Vomero, industrial area.
The critical issues of the evacuation plan
The evacuation plan for volcanic risk contains in the opinion of some scholars a series of critical issues that could make its concrete application very difficult. The first concerns the 72 -hour range to evacuate about 550 thousand residents before the eruption takes place. In fact, the estimate of the 72 hours is based on probabilistic calculations based on the precursor signals, but in the scientific community there is no uniformity of views on the real possibility that the possible eruption is expected to predict with this advance. According to an international study, the possibility of providing exactly the times of an eruption does not exceed 10%. The probability of the « false alarm » is therefore very high, that is to start the evacuation for an eruptive event that will not take place or will also take place much later, or a failure to alarm, or the possibility that there are not the 72 hours planned and the evacuation at an event already started should be started.
UNAIGIBLE ESCABLE ROAD
Another fundamental problem remains that of the usability of the escape routes, roads and infrastructures already identified in the plan to allow the fast removal of the population. In the Flegrei camps in many cases they are partially accessible or completely unusable. To limit yourself to two examples, the definitive connection of a tunnel is still awaited that from the area of the Pozzuoli fish market connects the ring road and would allow the outflow of the residents to the north-west, while the port of Pozzuoli where ferries and ships could arrive to transport people to some points difficult to navigate since the seabed should be dragged and in any case the docks have raised from the effect of Blesc. The head of the Civil Protection Fabio Ciciliano in Pozzuoli in recent days has estimated that it will be necessary at least a year to have efficient escape routes.
Congested traffic
Finally, a third problem that is not insignificant concerns vehicular traffic in an area with a very high housing density. In fact, a part of the inhabitants of the red area, according to the evacuation plan, should move with vehicles made available to the west to the city of Naples and from there reach the Naples Central railway station. This operation also appears to be very complex to carry out during an emergency taking into account the car traffic that already ordinarily clogs the Campania capital.
Flop exercises
Finally, the fact that the exercises intended as evacuation tests were certainly insufficient, since they were carried out in 2019 and 2024, should also be considered. In the first case they only participated a few dozen people. In the last exercise from 9 to 12 October 2024 and relatively better with the participation of 300 people, but it is a very limited sample if compared to the 550 thousand that should be evacuated within 72 hours.
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