Campaign. More than votes for deputies

After three weeks of intense television debates among the various political leaders, the campaign goes to the road this weekend, although Sunday and Monday are still days of debate with all parties with parliamentary seat.

At a time when the parliamentary framework was pulverized in several political forces that recently entered the Assembly of the Republic, and where almost tie scenarios between the two main parties became increasingly likely, the campaign’s headquarters work on maps that seek to make the most of the advantages and disadvantages of votes in Hondt method.

The system, if used well, can make a difference in gaining mandates, according to the electoral circles, for large and small parties. In fact, it comes, free and liberal initiative, and in the past the Left Block, bet all the chips in the large urban centers of Lisbon and Porto, to be able to enter Parliament. The reason is simple: it is the larger circles, which elect more deputies and where it is possible to elect with a fewer votes in a ballot box.

The life of the parties is complicated when they reach a national dimension. Then you need to evaluate well the best bets to make, and the accounts are not simple.

It is in this game of light and shadows that the campaign script is designed, not only by small parties, but since the last elections, in 2024, where PS and PSD) separated by only 54 thousand votes, with the result in the autonomous regions of Madeira and the Azores was decisive for AD’s victory.

The surprise that can come from the islands

As in 2024, surprises on the election night of May 18 can arrive from the Atlantic. Surroundings that have been released, although including interviews in both autonomous regions, the number of inquiries is not sufficient to detect more specific changes to those electorate.

The most emblematic case is the most likely entry of together by the people (JPP) in Parliament in the next elections. The party that has gained influence on the successive elections that have registered in Madeira, is now the second most voted force in the region and most experts believe that the election of a deputy is practically certain, stealing to the socialists one of the two terms he usually gets in national elections.

But the news may not be here, both in Madeira and in the Azores, the AdaCredita that it is possible to recover mandates on arrival. The case involving Deputy Miguel Arruda do Arruda, elected by the Azores electoral circle, can do Mossa and if it is like the AD should be the benefited force.

In Madeira, where the March elections did not give Miguel Albuquerque the absolute majority by a black nail, just join the CDs to achieve it, the expectation is that the results in national elections are not very different. If it is like this AD/Madeira has a chance to elect one more deputy which would lead to the arrival of not repeating the conquest of a term of the total of six that are attributed to the autonomous region.

AD and IL cross strategies

In the script defined by AD’s campaign direction, the priority is to bet on electoral circles where in the last elections did not elect deputies for a few votes. The strategy is to get the two in one: elect deputies with few votes and remove deputies, especially the PS and arrives.

The sunrise has asked João Telhada, a professor at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, to realize which circles in which, according to the goal set, Luís Montenegro should bet primarily. There are six districts where relatively few votes can become more deputies: Guarda, Castelo Branco, Viseu, Lisbon, Vila Real and Portalegre. In all these districts, the conquest of a deputy reverses in one less elected by the arrival (in Guarda and Portalegre), or by the PS (in Castelo Branco, Viseu, Lisbon and Vila Real).

On the liberal initiative side the bets are also well defined. The party concentrates the campaign where the vows in IlNo are wasted and where they can add to a better vote in AD. Survey has revealed that the two political forces can at least add more deputies than left parties all together and, in an optimistic scenario, can even reach an absolute majority. In order to achieve the General States of the two political formations they must seek to maximize results without harming themselves.

It is a true electoral crochet with which the two parties expect to be able to reach the night of elections in ideal conditions. Rui Rocha and Luís Montenegro do not hide that they are available for understandings and, on the side of AD, the intention is that a government agreement may even exist without having to have an absolute majority.

After the discussion phase in which Rui Rocha was taking the opportunity to present the conditions to accept joining an AD government, now it is time for each one to go to the road to try to raise votes and deputies.