Calm, technocratic carney has to guide Canada because of its existential crisis

With a clear election victory, the liberal party of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney completed a sensational electoral resurrection on Monday – thanks to US President Donald Trump and his persistent threats against the Noorderburen.

Canadian voters trust 60-year-old Carney, a former president of the Canadian Central Bank and of the British Central Bank, to defend the country against the American president for the time being. Trump has unleashed a trade war that threatens to deposit the economy of the country, a narrow free trade partner of the US for decades, into a recession. He also regularly says that he wants to incorporate Canada as a ’51st state’, to the anger of many Canadians.

« Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over, » said Carney, who succeeded former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in March, early in his victory speech on Tuesday morning. With its calm, technocratic image, Carney is seen by many Canadians as the best person to lead the country during the existential crisis that it is imagined by Trump. « If I am facing President Trump, it will be to discuss the future economic relations and security relationship between two independent countries. »

Our old relationship with the United States, based on steadily increasing integration, is over

For Carney, a newcomer in politics, the victory is a remarkable achievement: he dragged in a fourth consecutive mandate for the liberals, a stunning turnaround. At the beginning of this year, it was generally expected that the party, which has been in power since 2015, would be wiped out in the elections. The popularity of Trudeau was folded, and the conservative party of opposition leader Pierre Poilievre built up a month -long lead of 20 to 25 percent in the polls.

Monster victory

Poilievre, a 45-year-old populist, promised Canadian voters change after the years of regime of Trudeau. He seemed to be heading for a historic monster victory until a few months ago – but saw that prospect evaporate this spring in a short time. Through the return of Trump, many voters shivered for the right-wing populistic style and course of Poilievre. And the departure of Trudeau, who announced his resignation in January, after increasing pressure from his own party, the opposition leader deprived his favorite opponent.

The election campaign of more than a month became a polarizing battle between the two main parties. Both the liberals and the conservatives made a strong profit on Monday compared to the previous elections in 2021. The liberals achieved 43.5 percent of the votes, a jump of 11 percentage points, compared to 41.4 percent for conservatives, a growth of 7.5 percentage points. These are high levels for both parties: it is not unusual in Canadian elections that the largest party drags a victory with less than 40 percent of the votes.

Within the constituency system, the result translates according to provisional forecasts up to 169 seats for the liberals and 144 for the conservatives. 172 seats are needed for a majority in parliament; Only in the course of Tuesday, after definitive winners were proclaimed in several constituencies did it become clear that the liberals get stuck below that limit.

Smaller parties paid the electoral account: the social-democratic NDP handed in considerably and ends up on seven seats. The separatist Bloc Québécois, which only participates in the 78 constituents of the predominantly French -speaking province of Quebec, also lost support and comes to 22 seats. The greens retain one seat. Their losses are due to a wish of their voters to avert a victory from Poilievre; Some of them walked over to the Liberals of Carney for that purpose.

Parliamentary minority

Both leaders now face significant challenges. Carney will have to live up to his promise that he can protect the country from the Trump storm. As president of the Canadian central bank, he helped to guide Canada by the financial crisis and as head of the British central bank the UK through the Brexit. But because an absolute majority escapes him, he is less strong in his new mission than he had hoped – and there is a risk that his government will fall before the end of Trump’s second term in 2029. Usually, cabinets that rule with a parliamentary minority will keep up for eighteen months to two years.

Like Trudeau during his last two installments, Carney will have to rule with a parliamentary minority, by seeking support for his policy at opposition parties. The most obvious partner, the NDP, with which Trudeau collaborated, is weakened. Party leader Jagmeet Singh lost his own seat on behalf of a constituency near Vancouver and announced his departure after the result. Fruitful cooperation with the fierce Poilievre seems unlikely.

For Poilievre, the big question is whether he can stay as an opposition leader. Despite the loss, he gave his party an almost unprecedented number of votes and brought in new voters. He is popular under his supporters. But on Monday he lost his own seat in a constituency in the capital Ottawa. In his speech in response to the results, he indicated on Tuesday morning that he wanted to continue the fight. « Change takes time, but we will continue to fight for that change and we will deliver that change, » said Poilievre. Whether he gets the chance to do is a decision for his party members.

This article was updated on Tuesday at 10.15 pm, after it turned out that the liberals did not achieve a parliamentary majority.

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