Caimary metals continues to fall
The main industrial metals fell on world exchanges for a week under pressure from weak demand and overproduction. The quotes of aluminum, nickel and zinc decreased by 0.8-3%, copper prices were also adjusted, which in May rather showed a positive trend. The cost of copper is still partially supported by the deficit, but analysts do not see short -term significant prices for prices.
The quotes of most industrial non -ferrous metals decreased by the results of the week. Thus, a three -month -old Futures on a zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME), according to the results of trading on May 30, fell to $ 2.62 thousand per ton, which is 3% less than a week earlier. Aluminum quotes decreased by 0.8%per week, to $ 2.44 thousand per ton, nickel – by 2.3%, to $ 15.23 thousand per ton, follows from LME data.
Copper prices have also been adjusted, which from the beginning of the month rather showed a positive trend. At the auction on May 30, the quotes decreased by 0.7%, to $ 9.49 thousand per ton, according to the results of the week – by 1.1%.
Analysts interviewed by Kommersant explain the reduction of prices with weak production indicators in China – the largest consumer of non -ferrous metals, as well as signs of slowing down demand in the US and the EU industry. The head of the analytical department of the RIKO-TRAST investment company Oleg Ablev adds that the production of aluminum in China is growing annually by 10%, there is an excess of the second-class nickel, and the quotes of zinc and lead presses a decrease in demand in the construction sector of the PRC.
“Aluminum, nickel and zinc found themselves in the negative zone due to a decrease in demand from the United States and the EU due to the slowdown in industrial production, the growth of warehouse residues on LME, an increase in metals on the background of reducing electricity costs,” says Dmitry Orekhov, managing director of the NCR rating agency. According to him, aluminum prices may drop below $ 2.35 thousand per ton. The cost of nickel due to overproduction in Indonesia in the NKR at the end of 2025 is predicted in $ 14-15 thousand per ton, zinc in conditions of low demand in construction – $ 2.5–2.6 thousand per ton.
Senior Analyst of the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank Valery Bagishvili notes that a structural deficit is affected on the copper market, due to the weak dynamics of the supply in Chile, Panama and Africa, on the other hand, the US potential duties increase domestic demand and increase bonuses in the American market. On the Chicago Machine Exchange (CME), cops for copper on May 30 grew by 0.57%, up to $ 10.36 thousand per ton. According to Mrs. Bagishvili, the recognition by the US court of duties illegally had a limited short -term effect: legal uncertainty remains, but the factor itself enhances the expectation of a revision of trade flows and an increase in regional bonuses, primarily in the United States.
The director of the NRA rating service Sergei Grishunin believes that there is fundamentally a long -term increasing trend for copper prices, since based on a set of current investment projects, demand for this metal by 2035 will significantly exceed the proposal. In favor of rising copper prices, he said, can also speak decreasing reserves for LME, which compensates for all the negative and positive from the statements of the American leadership. “The deficit positively affects prices and does not allow them to negatively respond to rhetoric around duties, fluctuations in the dollar,” the expert notes. But for the next month, he said, significant growth drivers above $ 9.8 thousand are not observed per ton.
Mikhail Shulgin, chief analyst of the Center for Investment Analysting Rosgosstrakh Life, also indicates that against the background of great uncertainty that the US tariff policy forms, there are no confident arguments in favor of the fact that copper prices will be able to complete 2025 at a level above $ 10 thousand per ton. According to him, the quotes are likely to overcome this mark in the second half of 2026 and then can rise to $ 12 thousand per ton for 12 months. But, emphasizes Mr. Shulgin, this forecast implies a scenario in which, after long negotiations between the United States and China, a trading agreement will be reached, and the stimulating measures taken by the Beijing authorities will restart the real estate market, which will begin to clearly reflect with the beginning of 2026.
