By 2031, the Russian DBMS market may exceed a quarter of trillion rubles
In 2024, the Russian DBMS market reached 2% of the total sales of Russian IT solutions. According to analysts, the average annual growth rate until 2031 will be at the world level and will be about 16%. Six years later, the market will grow to 251 billion rubles. Experts call the main drivers the import substitution and development of and technologies. In their opinion, by 2031, the share of foreign decisions will not exceed 1%if the state does not allow the “unregulated and unconditional” return of the Uteshdny brands.
“Kommersant” studied annual research on the database management systems (DBMS) and data processing tools for 2024 of the Center for Strategic Development (CSR) with a forecast until 2031. According to the results of the year, the Russian market of DBMS reached 89.5 billion rubles, which is 14% more than in the previous year. The share of a general purpose DBMS is 48%, another 32% were for analytical systems. In the structure of the market, the software dominates, its share is 78%, the rest – 22% – falls on the share of services. Compared to 2023, the share of services in the total market volume increased slightly. Among the market leaders, according to the results of 2023, the experts of the CSR allocated Postgres Pro, Arenadata Group JSC, Dis Group, Yandex Cloud and Tantor Labs (part of the Astra Civil Code).
Experts call the main driver of growth the importance of imports. As a indicative result of this driver, the head of the DBMS System Software, Vladimir Trifonov, gives a “record number of systems” included in the register of domestic software of the Minzifra: in two years there were as many as for the entire period of the register. According to the CSR, thanks to this driver, in the period of 2027, the market growth will stay at the level of 21.6% per year. Further, according to the CSR estimates, growth will continue due to an increase in the generated data and increase the use of artificial intelligence technologies (AI). By 2031, an increase in the volume of the DBMS market to 251 billion rubles is expected.
In addition to the fact that AI spurges the demand for the DBMS, it also changes the systems themselves, says Maxim Pustova, CEO of Arenadata. AI helps prevent anomalies in requests, improve data quality, etc. The last option already allows users to work with DBMS without programming skills. Dmitry Yudin also notes the head of the Data & AI in Cloud.ru that machine learning allows you to create autonomous databases that can independently optimize their resources.
An increase in the share of services (consulting, support, migration) in the DBMS market will continue to grow. As noted by Linx Cloud products, Stanislav Bratchikov, one of these reasons is the complexity of the implementation. The transition to new DBMS requires adaptation of infrastructure, which increases the demand for consulting services. The second reason is the support of the Open Source solutions. Companies prefer paid support instead of independent administration. The third is migration from foreign decisions. Business needs assistance in transferring data from Oracle, SAP and other systems to Russian counterparts.
The use of Open Source solutions is associated with the risk of losing access to updates due to restrictions on foreign communities. “The market changes the tightening of the conditions of the Open Source products: now the developers support their own forks (a copy of the repository with changes. – « Kommersant ») And they are looking for alternatives, ”the B2B Tech press service said.
At the end of 2024, according to the CSR, the share of foreign decisions that have already been installed and are used at the facilities of Russian customers is 60%. “At the same time, the software of Russian developers will develop and by 2031 can take up to 99% of the market,” explained Ekaterina Kvasha. The general director of ANO NCC ISU Kirill Semion calls such an assessment “realistic”. “The only risk is the unregulated and unconditional return of Western vendors,” he added.
