BTP and government bonds, lens targets above 3%: what happens and what to expect

A certain calm has returned to the secondary market of government bonds after just two weeks ago a sudden wave of sales had pushed the performance (which moves in the opposite direction to the price) of the ten -year BTP on the threshold of 4%. The leap of over half a point in a few days was mainly due to the race from 2.35% to 2.88% of the yield of the German bund, a movement triggered by the new Berlin budget policy that had eliminated the constraints on the public debt. More debt means greater risk, which makes a higher performance necessary to convince investors. Slowly that storm went for by moving. The performance of the ten -year BTP fell to 3.77%, about 20 cents less than the maximums of the month. And so it happened at the Bund at 10 years, today to 2.64% of return, from the maximum of 2.88%. The spread stable – the differential between decennial btp and bund – at about 110 points.

« Real » return (net of inflation) to 2%

It should be noted that Losses for lengths of long -term government securities In these two weeks they have not been irrelevant: about 3-4% on long-term emissions (10 years and over) and a more contained file of 1-1.5% for the shorter deadlines at three and 5 years. Today a reimbursable BTP in 2030 offers a remuneration of 2.94% (for example the BTP on expiry 1/3/2030) while on the three years this drops to 2.56% (BTP 1/4/2028). The one -year bots offer 2.28% as well as those at 6 months.

Now what can you expect? A slow descent of returns on all deadlines is still possible, especially if the ECB will continue in its policy of cutting the cost of money. There is however a positive element Do not forget, and this applies to all the duration: with the inflation of March in Italy at 1.6% and in the euro area to 2.3% the yields of the tricolor government bonds protect the real value of the capital on all deadlines. And they offer up to 2% of profiling net.