Brussels sees Portugal growing less and talks about deficit in 2026

The European Commission has reviewed forecasts for the growth of the Portuguese economy this year to 1.8%, however, confident that Portugal’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grows 2.2% next year.

Predictions, released Monday, indicate that growth will lower from 1.9% in 2024 to 1.8% this year « as strong internal demand is offset by setbacks in external demand. »

Brussels also left alerts about commercial tensions with the United States. « Although Portugal’s direct exposure to the US market is relatively limited, the risks of significant indirect setbacks remain high and are related to interruptions and uncertainties in global trade, » warns the European Commission.

Regarding the budgetary surplus, the European Commission anticipates that Portugal will achieve 0.1% GDP this year but foresees a 0.6% deficit by 2026. “Current expense should continue to grow after budget policy measures that increase wages and public function pensions”, warns Brussels.

The European Economy Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, warned: “It is important to keep the course, both in terms of implementing the medium -term budgetary structural plans and the budget trajectory established in the plan, as well as the implementation of PRR”, warning that the new government must work “intensely” to be able to comply with the deadlines. « We do not have long time, so it is obviously important to work now in a very intense way to ensure that all milestones and objectives are fulfilled and that countries, including Portugal, fully benefit from PRR, » Valdis Dombrovskis told Lusa.

For Europe, the committee’s 2025 spring economic forecasts point to a 1.1 % royal GDP growth in 2025 in the European Union and 0.9 % in the eurozone, « globally at the same pace as the 2024.

In 2026, growth is expected to accelerate to 1.5% in the EU and 1.4% in the eurozone. Inflation in the eurozone should slow down, from 2.4% in 2024 to an average of 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. In the EU, inflation should follow a similar dynamic from a slightly higher level by 2024, falling slightly below 2% by 2026. Worldwide. Supported by a robust labor market and increased wages, growth should continue in 2025, although at a moderate pace, ”said Dombrovskis, adding that inflation“ is decreasing faster than predicted before and is on the way to reach the 2% goal this year ”.

But it leaves warnings: « We cannot be complanted. Risks to perspectives remain skewed in the descendant sense, so the EU must take decisive measures to boost our competitiveness. »