Between Shenzhen and Los Angeles merchantiles: at risk of portal ports and truck drivers

The swallowing of ships stopped in front of the Chinese port of Shenzhen is visible in all virtual maps that trace maritime traffic and is at 6,500 nautical miles away, in Los Angeles. There, in a more concrete way: it is in the large adjacent ports of Long Beach and the Californian metropolis itself that dock a good part of the racking holders that come from China, but in recent weeks the traffic is abruptly braking. Many mercantiles wait to be full to start from the People’s Republic, but the exporters in turn await to know the conditions they will find in the United States.

The ships stopped

They are not only the barriers of Donald Trump, it is also the uncertainty that keeps the ships stopped in Shenzhen or Shanghai. For this reason, while the hope of an agreement on the « mutual » duties reports the index of the Wall Street bag at the levels of a month ago, are the material indexes of the doors-containers that now start to go down. Even more than in customs costs, reason is probably in the impossibility of foreseeing them.

Uncertainty about duties

Navigation from Shenzhen to Los Angeles takes at least thirteen days but, before sending, exporters need to know the conditions they will find upon arrival. Today for 77% of the Chinese export value in America, 145% duties are in force above the levels of the end of January (only the consumption electronics is free) and the withdrawal is calculated at the time of the attachment in the United States.
Those who send today know that, if nothing changes, they will have to cope with the highest duties in history between the two countries. Now the openings to the negotiation, on both sides, let the operators hope that Beijing and Washington will find a compromise. It will hardly be a return to the situation at the beginning of the year, but they count that it is more practicable than today.

Exchanges still between China and the USA

In the meantime, without knowing what will happen, among the first and second economy of the world many of the exchanges of almost 700 billion dollars (in 2024) are stopping. According to Bloomberg reported, commented the executive director of the port of Los Angeles Gene Seroka two days ago: «We begin to see a slowdown in the flow of cargo. In two weeks the arrivals will drop by 35 percent – said the manager – given that essentially all shipments from China for large retail retailers and for producers have stopped « . Seroka added, to underline how even the lowest duties at 10% on the rest of the world are generating a severe impact: « Cargo shipments from other areas of the South-East area are much more slow than normal ».

The alarm of the GDO

It is likely that the Trump administration includes – now – its errors on the duties of the last month. Leaving the impasse without giving the impression of giving in to Beijing will not be simple, but the time holds. The leaders of large retailers – Home Depot, Target and Walmart – have already warned Trump who in June, at this rate, will appear the first voids on their shelves. The semiparallis of ports and logistics risks triggering chain layoffs among the blue collars, exhibiting the 300 thousand workers of the Los Angeles airport and millions between truck drivers, warehouse workers and shops throughout America: the same workers that the Trump administration says she wants to protect.

The ports of the ports

International Longshore & Warehouse Union, the Californian port union, is already attacking the government: « The duties are taxes – says its declaration of three days ago -. These and other reckless, myopi measures have started to devastate American workers ». Then there is one last reason why Trump does not have much time to get out of the dead end in which he got: many large distributors operate on orders paid for debt and, if business stop, their financial stress will soon come to the surface.
The question at this point therefore is not if Trump wants to go back, because he has no choice. This is how long does it have to do it before the damage to the American economy do even more serious.