Bets on the provision of carriage of coal transportation decreased
The cost of the provision of carriage of coal carriage has devied to the minimum from the beginning of 2023. According to analysts, in April, the rates decreased by almost 15%, and in the operator segment of the reserve there was no reserve to increase the profitability of transportation. Experts see some potential in reducing already reduced bets on the ports in the ports, but the main thing at discounts to the tariff of Russian Railways or direct state subsidies of the industry. The monopoly so far comes into concessions to the coal holders only in the same operator segment – through a subsidiary of the Federal Cargo Company.
The rates for the provision of carriage for the transportation of coal in April decreased by 14.7%, to 2.21 thousand rubles. For a wagon per day, the data of NEFT Research testifies. This happened, the study said, due to « the reduction of solid fuel abroad and reducing the volume of carbonated coal. »
In OJSC, Kommersant was informed that in April 26.4 million tons of coal were sent on the network, which is 6.7% less than a year earlier, of which 14.4 million tons were exported (minus 4.6%). Export eastly increased by 4.8%, to 9.5 million tons, in the southern one-1.6 times, to 1.4 million tons, and in the north-west-it decreased by 22.3%, to 3.4 million tons. For four months, coal exports amounted to 59.9 million tons, which corresponds to the level of 2024. In the eastern direction, 38.6 million tons were exported (2.8%growth), in the southern-7.4 million tons (growth of 1.7 times), in the north-west-13.9 million tons (reduction by 22.9%).
The rates of operators for the provision of half -wagons for the transportation of coal have devoted minimums in April since the beginning of 2023, says Roman Shagalov, senior analyst at the Center for Price Indexes (CCI). “The use of a typical car on the Kuzbass route – Equipment, taking into account the fever for empty mileage, is estimated at 132 thousand rubles. without VAT, and innovative – 156 thousand rubles. Without VAT, ”he notes.“ CCI records that the wagon component of the rate is reduced and in the structure of transport costs when exporting coal from Kuzbass is $ 9 per ton of cargo. For comparison: payment of the railway tariff for the loaded and empty mileage of the car reaches $ 44. ”
“A decrease in railway tariffs will support the profitability of exports against the background of low world prices for coal and ruble strengthening,” NEFT Research believes. So far, as Kommersant wrote earlier (see Kommersant on March 17 and April 2), a decrease in the transport component of coal transportation occurs primarily in the segment of the provision of wagons and transshipment in the ports. “We see reserves for optimizing the costs of coal export in the return of lowering coefficients of 0.4 (at a range) and 0.895 (for energy coal), as well as an additional discount to the tariff of Russian Railways in 12.8% for transporting coal ports in the south and north-west, which will improve the economy of foreign supplies of coal for 240–720 rubles. per ton, ”says Alexander Kotov, partner of Neft Research in consulting.
In the Russian Railways OJSC, with reference to the calculations of the Institute of Economics and Transport Development (IRT), it is noted that coal transportation in the east in 2014–2024 led to losses of Russian Railways in the amount of 428.3 billion rubles. And « additional preferences will lead to undisguised losses, which will be especially sensitive, taking into account the high debt load of the company. » The monopoly reminds that the tariffing of coal transportation contains a significant number of preferences, in the circular flight of coal transportation, taking into account the return of empty gondola cars, remain unprofitable for OJSC Railways and, in fact, are subsidized by the transportation of other goods of the second and third tariff classes.
The Federal Cargo Company included in the Russian Railways Russian Railways resemble in monopoly, and reduced the cost of providing wagons during the transportation of coal through the western ports by 25%. “That is, the discount is at least $ 5 per ton,” said Russian Railways. “This is even more than the consignors would give the consignors the maximum possible discount to the tariff of Russian Railways.” Survived Coal companies “Kommersant” did not answer.
Analysts believe that it is already impossible to increase the profitability of coal transportation by the operators by operators. According to Roman Shagalov, if the operators provide rolling stock for the transportation of coal for free, the non -back Kuzbass energy coal will grow to $ 11. “Given the fact that a number of exporters estimates the cost of production of $ 30, even free wagons will not help supply the energy coal of Kuzbass to world markets with profitability. Only exporters of more expensive metallurgical coal will go into a steady plus, ”he says. Based on the current drop in coal prices, the foreign exchange rate and the cost of paying for the tariff of Russian Railways, no matter what the pricing policy of logistics operators, they are not able to ensure the profitability of export, or attract additional volumes of coal to the network, summarizes Mr. Shagalov.
Alexander Kotov indicates that the strength of the strength of some operators of half -wagons has few: with the current operating rates of 2 thousand rubles. and costs for leasing the car 3.1 thousand rubles. They can no longer be very maneuvering per day. A certain margin of strength, he believes, there are ports in the work that could give a discount on the current rates for another $ 2-3 per ton. The great potential for supporting coal exporters – in direct subsidizing transportation or production expenses by the state, adds an analyst.
