Before discussions, Ukraine destroys Russian aircraft

A spectacular stroke of the Ukraine against Russia’s strategic bomber fleet has now mixed the tickets for a negotiating round of the warring parties in Istanbul. The Moscow reaction to the loss of a larger number of aircraft is still pending. According to its own statements, the Ukrainian secret service smuggled many small drones to Russia and had them attacked from trucks near Russian military airfields.

The discussion in Istanbul has been the second since mid -May. Before that, the warring parties last spoke directly to each other in 2022. Russia has been waging a war against the neighboring country for more than three years. Questions and answers about the situation and what can be expected from negotiations.

What happened at the Russian air force bases?

The Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj celebrated the surprising attack by his secret service SBU as a « absolutely brilliant success ». One and a half years of preparation were preceded. Support points were attacked in the Iwanowo, Rjasan and Murmansk regions in the European part of Russia, Irkutsk in Siberia and Amur in the Far East. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that aircraft had caught fire in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions.

The small remote -controlled aircraft were therefore hidden in wooden boxes on trucks, the drivers of which were unsuspecting to the military grounds. There the truck roofs opened automatically and the FPV drones started their attack.

According to SBU, more than 40 combat and reconnaissance aircraft were destroyed- around 34 percent of the Russian bombers who are able to discontinue cruises. So far, these numbers have not been checked independently. But photos and videos showed damaged and destroyed fighter planes of the types Tupolew Tu-95 and TU-22. Russia has always shot at Ukraine with rockets that start from such aircraft.

Where are Moscow and Kyiv facing the negotiations?

Both sides have formulated demands for the end of the fighting, which have so far hardly matched. In addition, shortly before the meeting in Istanbul, the warring parties passed their mutual attacks massively – with victims and damage on both sides. According to Selenskyj, Russia had attacked Ukraine on Sunday night with almost 500 drones and rockets. In its part, Ukraine should also demonstrate strength with its coordinated attack on several Russian military airfields before negotiations.

Based on a US proposal, the Ukrainian president calls for an internationally monitored unconditional 30-day ceasefire as an introduction to peace negotiations. For the agreement of a permanent peace, he also introduces himself to a meeting at the highest level. This is the only way to solve the most important questions.

Moscow rejected an unconditional ceasefire with the argument that Kiev could use a break of fire for collecting strength in the war. Russia provides two conditions as a minimum requirement for a ceasefire.

« For the duration of the ceasefire, it is at least necessary that the western countries stop the arms deliveries to the Kiev regime and the Ukraine ends their mobilization, » said Russia’s UN ambassador Wassili on the United Nations Security Council on Friday. His country was ready to talk about the conditions for peace at the negotiations in Istanbul.

What can be expected from the negotiations?

Above all, both side want to speak about their respective memorands for the end of the war. Ukraine now wants to examine Russia’s input in Istanbul after he had already handed over her document to Russia. According to Selenskyj, the Russian side has not yet presented a memorandum. « We don’t have it, the Turkish side does not have it, and the American side does not have the Russian document, » he wrote the evening before the talks on the platform X.

While Kiev has hardly any expectations of a solution and calls for further sanction pressure on Moscow, Russia calls for continuing the negotiations. In his evening video approach on Sunday, Selenskyj said that they would try « at least to make some progress towards peace ».

The only important result of the negotiations in May was the greatest prisoner exchange so far. It is conceivable that the new round will bring an agreement of a further exchange of prisoners.

Talks about a new fire break are also possible – as at Easter. Recently, there was also a willingness to do without attacks on energy systems. During the fire breaks, the two sides had accumulated many violations, but also admitted that the number of attacks had decreased. Ukraine emphasized the absence of air alarm on individual days.

What is the fundamental conflict resolution?

So far, Russia has remained with maximum demands to permanently end the conflict. In addition to a Ukrainian waiver of NATO accession and extensive disarmament of the country, this also includes the recognition of the Russian annexation of Ukrainian areas. In addition to the Black Sea Peninsula Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, Russia also looks at the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Saporischschja and Cherson as its territory. Although Russia has not yet fully checked these four regions, it requires a deduction of Ukrainian troops.

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin announced in mid -May after visiting the Russian border region of Kursk, partly controlled by Ukrainian troops, to want to create a buffer zone « along the border ». The Ministry of Defense in Moscow recently reported terrain gain there and in other regions of Ukraine. Ukraine rejected the plans. In the plans, she sees new proof that Russia is not interested in peace.

Does Russia want other areas?

Russia repeatedly emphasizes that it is not interested in ground because it is big enough itself. However, the conflict is about protection of the Russian -speaking minority in Ukraine. This threatens to expand the regional claims. The chairman of the Defense Committee in the Russian Parliament, Andrej Kartapolow, made it clear that Ukraine can also lose its areas of Dnipropetrowsk, Sumy, Charkiw, Odessa and Mykolajiw if they now insert the Moscow peace offer.

Selenskyj rejects a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and has ruled out area aberrations to Russia several times. The constitution of Ukraine does not allow this, he said.