As Ukraine plans to produce 4.5 million drones

In 2024, Ukraine set itself the task of producing a million FPV-ames, and even exceeded it. The main intrigue-what will be the target for the 2025th year?

Prime Minister Denis Shmigal statedthat Ukraine will produce more than 2.5 million drones this year. But in reality, this figure is not true, because in power offices have long put themselves a more ambitious bar – 4.5 million pieces.

According to the interlocutors of the EP in the defense industry, the decision to purchase 4.5 million drones was born on the rate of the Supreme Commander in January this year. It is dictated by the risks of disruption of foreign supplies of weapons, restrictions on domestic production of shells and the success of UAV operators in the destruction of enemies.

Drones really replaced Ukraine with many traditional means of destruction. By in words Commander-in-Chief Alexander Sirsky, in January, 49% of the destruction of enemy equipment occurred with the help of FPV-oka. Therefore, this year the state seeks to scale the phenomenon of percussion drones at the front, compensating for their weaknesses.

Achieving a new goal will need to attract all the free capacities of Ukrainian producers, because for in words Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, 4.5 million drones is the total capacity of domestic companies for 2025.

Ukraine will have to look for money, adjust logistics, improve quality control, find tools to reduce prices and equip ammunition for these drones. The ability of the country will depend on the implementation of this super-task in 2025.

Money and capacity

The cost of the FPV-pings on the market is very different. It all depends on its configuration, the quality of the components, the integrity of the manufacturer and the ability of the customer to knock out the best price.

Codified drone on radio control or with a transparent procedure with a transparent procedure can be purchased for 15-20 thousand UAH. At the same time, the average price of one drone on the fiber that is much more expensive but equally important in Brave1 catalog It is 40 thousand UAH.

But the price in each case may be different. The quality of management will depend on whether a threefold increase in public procurement will lead to a decrease in prices due to the « scale effect » or vice versa – it will increase the cost due to excitation demand and chaotic purchases.

According to approximate estimates of the EP, depending on the cost and types of FPV-oules, more than UAH 100 billion may be required for the purchase of 4.5 million pieces. Where to look for them?

The first source – Budget of the Defense Procurement Agency (AOP). In 2025 the Ministry of Defense (MO) planned Allocate UAH 44 billion for FPV-orons. According to the EP Director of the Procurement Department Mo Glib Kanevsky, this figure will definitely be greater, because the state is just looking for ways to accumulate more money inside the country to buy these drones.

Western partners may be funded by some of the contracts. For example, the Netherlands They expressed their readiness to join the contract of Ukrainian drones.

The second source – Budget of the State Special Communications Service (DSZI). The body will distribute UAH 47 billion this year due to the project « Army of drones ». However, it is not only about the purchase of FPV, but also about land robots, « bombers », « scouts » and long -range UAVs, which are much more expensive.

The third source – budgets of military units. Monthly the Ministry of Defense will highlight brigades at 2.5 billion UAH per month (ie 30 billion UAH per year) for the purchase of UAV. Another up to UAH 10 billion, military units will receive 10% of the PIT of military personnel from the transfer.

Also, the purchases of brigades for billions of hryvnias are funded by charitable foundations and city councils. That is, the military will receive a total of more than UAH 40 billion for purchases, most of which will be spent on Ukrainian FPV-drones and Chinese mavic drones.

The fourth source – Project “Drone Line”. It provides additional funding for four leading UAVs. UAH 4.6 billion has now been allocated for drones and related equipment that is required for operators. The project can be scaled during the year.

That is, the state is capable of accumulating more than UAH 140 billion that can be used to buy drones.

« The contract will continue all year long. The agency will conclude a lot of transactions at the beginning of the year, because it has a large financial resource. And the military units will be connected throughout the year, because they receive money on a monthly basis. Part of 4.5 million drones are already regulated, including last year's transition. »

In fact, the state wants to increase the purchases of drones almost three times. Therefore, the question arises: whether domestic manufacturers are able to produce so many UAVs.

There should be no problems with this. According to the EP, there are at least three large companies in Ukraine that can make more than 100 thousand FPV-a-month. And this is not given the dozens of medium and hundreds of small manufacturers.

In 2024 Ukrainian OPK He made 2.2 million FPV-oules. At the same time, the Association « Technological Forces of Ukraine » (TSU), which brings together the largest producers of unmanned systems, complained of unloading 63% of the capabilities of the plants. According to them last year the company did not produce 1.6 million FPV-oules due to lack of order.

If you make up 2.2 million produced and 1.6 million not produced, the ability of 3.8 million FPV-punks will be given last year. And this ability will increase with the receipt of new major contracts in 2025.

« The state customer's plans themselves to regulate 4.5 million drones are a signal to producers for production and new investment. At the same time, caution should not occur when companies are being investing in new capabilities, and they will hardly receive contracts under them, as it was last year.

It is also important for manufacturers to understand which body will contract them in the near future, because now purchases are quite unpredictable,  » – said the EP TSU Director Kateryna Mikhalko.

According to Kanevsky, the final figure in the procurement can change during the year. In particular, it will depend on the intensity of enemy attacks and the relevance of FPV-a-kirds technology at the front. But while the contract is scheduled at the beginning of the year.

The call for the state may be to determine the capacity of each individual company when contracting. Repeatedly in the Ukrainian defense industry there have been cases where profile bodies and manufacturers have gave out what was desired for a valid In determining the capabilities of the plant to put a large number of products. As a result, it ended with fines and weapons to the front.

A military with FPV-arable

Ukrainian Truth, Dmitry Larin

A separate issue is the expediency of purchasing 4.5 million drones, as the army's ability to effectively use such a number of percussion drones may be limited. Problems can arise in the « bandwidth » of training centers, lack of operators, lack of infrastructure or banal drones of the « Mavic », which are used in pairs with an FPV-aroma.

It is unknown what the discussion on this was on the rate, but probably the military leadership knows what he does.

Quality is important

Last year, the sharp growth of the state order of FPV-troops was accompanied by problems with the quality of drones and their relevance on the battlefield. The situation with supply and still remains heterogeneous.

One of the commanders of the unit in the National Guard team told the EP that in the early 2024 there were noticeable problems with the UAV posed by the state. But now the Drone Army has set up a system for determining the efficiency of drones and covers 80% of the unit's needs. The drones themselves have become much better.

At the same time the commander of the 3rd separate assault brigade Andrei Biletsky On the air of NV He noted that the purchased drones are quickly obsolete until the government order reaches the front. Because of this, drones often need to be recycled.

In order not to scale the existing chronic procurement problems, the state plans to make several changes.

First – decentralize the purchases of drones and give brigades more opportunities to buy the necessary equipment directly. This will accelerate its supply and allow you to buy exactly the drones that you need each specific unit.

The experiment with a significant expansion of the budgets of military units began at the end of 2023, when the government allowed them to spend 10% of taxes paying the military. The weak place of this idea was the absence in the parts of experienced purchasers who simply could not physically carry out and control the cost of such a amount of money.

But since then, many military units have managed to gain experience and improve the skills of their purchasers. This became possible in particular thanks to “Project 100”that was funded by the Defense Ministry and the United Kingdom.

Already in December 2024 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered increase the direct funding of brigades and the Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov officially Introduced the position of commissioner in military units.

A friend Change – more actively use the tool to make adjustments in order during its execution, so that only technologically actual drones fall on the front.

« Requirements for the manufacturer will intensify. First of all, adaptability and flexibility. Because if we conclude a contract for a million drones during the year, and technologies change every three months, then the manufacturer should be able to change the characteristics without increasing price. We have already had such practice, and it will be more common, because they have been heard. – said Kanevsky.

Drone on the fiber

Ministry of Defense

Also, the Ministry of Defense, to improve the quality control of products, is preparing to cancel the Institute of Military Representatives (the so -called « acceptance »). By in words Umerov, this will accelerate the process of checks and will bring quality control in accordance with NATO standards.

The third – There will be a change of approaches to purchasing. According to several EP interlocutors among drone manufacturers, last year AOP had problems with the contracting of FPV. Authorized persons often changed, and the procedure was slow and opaque.

One of the future reforms of the new AOP ACO Zhumadilov is the introduction of Dot-Chain Defense for drone purchases. It will work as follows: the military from the unit enters the site, elects in the FPV-Drone catalog and approves an order with the commander.

For the purchase of drones, each brigade will have its own budget, which will allocate AOP. Part of the funds – guaranteed, the other – depends on the efficiency of the unit. The drones themselves in the catalog will be categorized, have reviews and their price – as on the marketplaces.

After forming an order, the commander sends a request for AOP. The system collects annual and monthly orders from different crews, and the agency on their basis makes a large order to manufacturers.

In this way, the unit will choose without unnecessary intermediaries, which drones will be supplied by the agency, and the manufacturer will see the need for its products in real time, so it can quickly produce them and prepare their delivery directly to the unit.

The EP agency reported that the functionality of the annual order collection system is ready, and the corresponding Cabinet resolution for agreed in the Ministry of Defense.

« The system made by Zhumadilov can reduce the average purchasing price by 50%. As a result, much more drones will be released on the same budget. Now some companies that are supplied at AOP, the price is almost twice as high as ours than a similar product (or even easier in characteristics). Vyriy Drone, one of the largest manufacturers in Ukraine FPV-oules.

Another way to increase transparency is to translate some of the FPV-oules into a Prozorro closed module. By data « Our Money », on the first such tender of the State Secretariat, was able to reduce the purchase price of drones by 62%. Digital Transformation Minister Mikhail Fedorov statedthat the state set the goal to buy at least half of the drones through Prozorro in 2025.

According to Babenko, if transparent and competitive procedures are successfully implemented in the purchase, the state is quite capable of putting the armies of even 6 million drones. If, of course, there is such a need.