Are the United States preparing for an Iran war?
Once again it is Donald Trump who keeps the world – and especially the Middle East – in suspense. After his early departure from the G7 summit in Canada, the analysts of the large Arab television stations Al Arabija (Saudi Arabia) and Al Jasira (Qatar) deal with two possible scenarios.
Trump’s G7 exit and the scenarios for his Middle East mission
The first, the announcement of a ceasefire or at least efforts to break a fire between Israel and Iran-with a subsequent resumption of the nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran-was denied by the US President a little later. It was not about gun resting, he texted, but about « a real end » of the conflict. In order to achieve a final solution in the nuclear dispute with Tehran and prevent the construction of an Iranian atomic bomb once and for all, he could again send his special ambassador Steve Witkoff to Oman, Trump indicated on the return flight from the G7 summit.
Trump asks to evacuate Tehran
There are also large scope for interpretation for reports from Israeli sources, according to which the US military is about to carry out military strokes against Iran or wants to expand the collaboration with Israel. « This is wrong, » said a Pentagon spokesman on Tuesday night. « The US troops in the Middle East only prepared to defend themselves if necessary (…) and to protect American interests »-which in no way means that the United States does not take part in the war against Iran at a later, quite timely time. In any case, the relocation of two additional aircraft carriers and three destroyers to the Central East region speak for this.
However, the striking of the Israelis in Iran also seems to be reached to limits.
Trump’s request to the residents of Tehran – at least 13 million people – to leave the capital “immediately”, does not speak for peaceful intentions. But for which one?
Iran shouldn’t expect a lot of help from Russia
Netanyahu also called for Tehran’s « evacuation » on Monday – and thus caused indescribable panic in the Iranian capital. « If the Israelis will now drop their atomic bombs on Tehran, » was one of countless rumors. The Iranian state propaganda had previously browned with the destruction of Haifa’s refinery. According to the operator, this was actually killed by Iran and temporarily shut down. How long will the country’s largest refinery will remain out of operation was not said.
The destruction of the nuclear systems cannot be entitled to Israel alone
The continued Iranian steering weapons attacks on Israel, which were continued on Tuesday morning, are surprising for many military experts. They had expected « significantly less resistance of the mullahs ». It is not to be expected that the Israeli military is impressed.
However, the striking of the Israelis in Iran also seems to be reached to limits. This applies above all to the Iranian uranium enrichment system in Fordow near Ghom, which was built so deeply underground that it cannot be destroyed with the existing bomb arsenal of the Israeli army. « We need the help of the Americans for this, » Israeli military spokesman has warned several times in the past few days. Specifically, this means: Without American help, Netanyahu cannot achieve its important war goal, the complete destruction of the Iranian nuclear systems.
Regime change possible without US help
A second war goal, namely the collapse of the Mullah regime, could get closer to Israeli Prime Minister without American help. Success is not guaranteed, of course. What is certain is that if the Israeli Air Force succeeds in the next acts or weeks to kill the Iranian revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei, the severe crisis in Iran would continue to intensify.
How Tel Aviv escalated the conflict with Tehran
Netanyahu expressly did not exclude the « targeted killing » of the most powerful man in Iran. Trump, it says in Washington, but inserted « his veto » after Netanyahu asked in this regard.
Should the Israeli head of government go his own way, which would not have been the first time, Khameini’s son Mojtaba could inherit his father. In a British memo published via Wikileaks to the US State Department, Mojtaba is described as a « powerful personality and capable manager » « who is intended to take at least part of the national leadership ». However, there are only a number of other scenarios that are currently hotly debated not only in Iran. You will not contribute to the stability in the Central East region, which is certain.
