Are the ‘incredible’ investments in the US the merit of Trump?

It is « incredible to see, » said US President Donald Trump in the rose garden of the White House on Wednesday, with his long -awaited announcement of « reciprocal levies » on imports from numerous countries: « Companies are floating into our country to a degree that we have never observed before. And jobs and following money. »

Not only did Trump show a sign with a laundry list of rates that he imposes on countries in all parts of the world, he also listed a series of American and foreign companies that have announced investment plans in the United States worth tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in recent months – a total of more than 1,500 billion dollars.

According to the president, the commitments show that his economic policy – in particular import duties to encourage companies to move their production to the US – is immediately fruiting. « Many of the largest companies in the world have promised to build, build, build, » Trump said triumphantly.

The president spoke praising words about Apple. The tech giant received applause in the rose garden for a plan to invest $ 500 billion in US branches in the coming four years. The same amount was prompted in January by a consortium of the Japanese Softbank, OpenAi and Oracle: they hope that in the coming years under the name ‘Stargate’ to invest in initiatives with regard to artificial intelligence in the US. A fifth of that money is immediately available.

Chip factories

Trump also praised the Taiwanese chip maker TSMC, who unfolded a plan last month to invest $ 100 billion in branches in the US state of Arizona. With the intended new chip factories, two advanced packaging facilities and a new research center, the total investments of the company will rise to $ 165 billion – the largest foreign direct investment in the history of the US.

Trump mentioned more examples. Pharmaceutical box Johnson & Johnson – « Great Company » – has announced investments of 55 billion dollars in four years, branch colleague Eli Lilly put 27 billion on the table for the production of drugs in the US. And last month the South Korean car manufacturer Hyundai presented an investment plan worth $ 20 billion, which includes a steel factory in the southern state of Louisiana. Top director Eeisun Chung stood on Trumps side in the White House when the plan is announced. « This investment is clear evidence that rates are very effective, » Trump said.

Is that correct? Is there indeed a direct link between the announced investments and import duties? To what extent do billions of investments show that the President’s trade policy has an effect?

There are indications that increased uncertainty about international trade barriers plays a role in the aim of some companies to strengthen their presence in the US. For example, José Munoz, the international CEO of Hyundai Motor, said in January against Axios That expansion of the presence in the US offers the best protection at trade rates. « We have decided to invest heavily in America, because it is our most important market. »

Yet there is skepticism that the investments announced so far are a direct response to Trumps taxes. To start with because investment plans are generally a longer period of time. Investments of tens of billions of dollars are usually not approved and presented within a few weeks or months. In several cases, the plans date back to Trumps election in November and are now being used by the companies to get a white foot from the president.

Apple’s plans illustrate that. The tech giant promises $ 500 billion in investments and 20,000 jobs in the US in the coming four years, and is planning to open a factory for servers in Houston, Texas, the company said in February after a meeting by top man Tim Cook with Trump. For the Techgigant from California, a group with a market value of more than $ 3,000 billion, 500 billion in four years is a modest increase in the usual spending pace. In 2021, at the start of the period of then President Joe Biden, Apple announced an investment plan of 430 billion dollars in five years.

Such plans are for Apple “somewhat Business as usual become, « said Passion Capital Analyst Eileen Burbidge against the BBC. « But they sound like music to Donald Trump. »

Also the ambitious goal of Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, to build hundreds of billions of infrastructure for AI, dates from before the re -election of Trump in November, albeit not under the name ‘Stargate’. A first data center for that initiative is now under construction in Texas; The location was already chosen by Oracle in the summer of 2024, Bloomberg reports.

The target of 500 billion dollars is new. Immediately after the announcement, doubts were expressed about the feasibility of that amount, including by Trump adviser and AI investor Elon Musk. But the objective fits within the intensive race for investments in AI, which came on steam in 2024 after the global hype around Chatgpt.

Subsidies

Investments have also been encouraged in the field of semiconductors since Trump’s return to the White House and there is a boom regardless of political wind. During the presidency of Biden, the Chips and Science Act (CSA), initiated during Trumps first term, was adopted for this. TSMC was lured to Arizona with subsidies under those legislation. Under Biden, five leading chip makers were encouraged to set up production facilities in the US, partly for reasons of national security.

They make it more beautiful than it is by reusing existing investments

All in all, Daniel Keum, professor at the Columbia Business School, which was planned for about 80 percent of the announced expenditure before the Trump election victory. « They make it more beautiful than it is by reusing existing investments, » he said in return for The Wall Street Journal. « Every company responds to the requirements of the government. »

In addition, top people in the business community experience pressure to express support to Trump and his promise of economic prosperity. They actively look at how they can help Trump with favorable news to get to him. The president has actively pulled the richest of them, the tech bosses, to his camp; More and more of them are sensing with their prominent presence in his swearing in January.

The pressure to show support for Trumps ‘America First’ agenda is running According to Bloomberg So high on that some companies feel excluded. For example, in recent months, drivers of Amazon would have spoken about the option to make an announcement about their American investments with Trump, Bloomberg said based on a source at the group.

Unionized

Another important comment on the Superlatives is that grand investment plans are not always actually realized. During Trump’s first term, Electronica Producer Foxconn announced an investment of $ 10 billion in 2018 in a displays factory in Wisconsin. Only 700 million was finally spent. And as part of the 430 billion in investments that Apple announced in 2021, a location in North Carolina would be built. That project never got off the ground.

None of those nuances was mentioned by Trump. According to him, his government can already boast more business investments in two months than the government of his predecessor Joe Biden has reached in four years: according to the archived website of his White House, this would be about $ 1,000 billion, often in green energy and semiconductors. However, Trumps statement is largely based on the announcements of Apple and Stargate of 1,000 billion – plans that have not yet been implemented.

According to A fact check of The Washington Post is therefore the claim incorrect. The newspaper points out that the investments that Trump lists concerns 26 announcements, while investments under Biden were measured in 675 concrete construction projects. According to the newspaper, it is much too early to take stock. « It is quite possible that (Trump) has a reason to brag about attracting investments when his term is completed. But at the moment his claim is that he has won more deals in two months than Biden in four years of nonsense. »

How that balance ultimately unpacks will also depend on the negative effects of the taxes on the investment climate. Building factories lasts for years, so companies also weigh on further decisions how long they expect the taxes to remain in force. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, in that context last month pointed to ‘remarkably high’ levels of economic uncertainty. « I don’t know anyone who has great faith in his own predictions. »

Correction 4/4: In an earlier version of this article, TSMC TSCM was mentioned in the intro chip maker. That has been adjusted above.

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