Are carbon dioxide emissions in China reached the peak – BBC News in Serbian

Over the past year, carbon dioxide emissions in China began to declare.

This shows a report prepared by Lauri Milivirt from the Center for Energy Research and Pure Air (CREA) for the British portal dedicated to climate change Carbon brief.

In the first quarter of 2025, the total emissions of carbon dioxide in China were 1.6 percent compared to the same period last year, the report states.

Other experts with whom the BBC talks point out that they not independently confirm these data in China’s energy sources indicate that the country is on Prague to end the multileavial growth trend, or that it is already.

Carbon dioxide emissions in China previously decreased, but only during large shocks, such as the cove-19 pandemic, which slowed down the Chinese economy.

If these data is confirmed, this would be the first time that emissions were reduced at a time when the demand of the Chinese economy was noticed by powerful growth.

If this decline continues, it would mark the end of the accelerated emissions growth period that makes China become the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world.

50 years ago, the share of China in the total world emissions was less than seven percent.

After a decades of accelerated economic growth, which mostly relied on coal, today, the share of China in the world emissions of greenhouse gases is about 30 percent.

In 2019, 2019. years, emissions in China were greater than the total emissions of all developed countries.

While shows in China are dizzy, other major economies like the United States (US) and European Union recorded a decline in emissions, because they gradually abolished energy intensive production and use of coal for electricity production.

China has long claimed that it only follows the path to which richer countries went, whose economic development has also followed the strong increase in emissions.

However, the fact is that China is the main cause of world growth in recent years.

« China was responsible for the practical entire growth of net emissions in the world in the past decade.

« The world would stabilize shows for ten years ago that there was no China, » Milivirta says, author of the report for the portal Carbon brief.

Due to the scale of Chinese emissions, it is crucial that the country starts reducing emissions so that success in combating climate change can be achieved.

Strong growth of clean energy

Milivirt says that thanks to the large increase in the number of solar and wind farms, as well as other sources of clean energy across the country, China managed to restrain emissions growth.

« More than half of all solar panels and wind farms were built in the world in recent years, » he stated.

« The capacity of solar panels set in China last year can be compared with overall capacity in the EU, and it is astonishing the pace of growth. »

New data of the British Analytical Center for Energy Ember They show that in April, the wind and sun energy was a source of more than a quarter of electricity produced in China.

At the same time, in the first four months of 2025. year, the production of electricity from fossil fuels fell by 3.6 percent compared to the same period last year.

« These are drastic changes for the economy, which is made up of coal, » Stretching Yang Bacing, analyst at the Center Ember.

« Coal thermal power plants are increasingly considered a spare source of electricity, » she says.

Although it has not confirmed all the Milivirtine data, JANG agrees that carbon dioxide emissions from electricity production in China are starting to stabilize, especially due to renewable sources in the country’s energy mix.

Peak or stagnation?

However, the fact that China restrains emission growth does not necessarily follow the sustainable drop in shows.

« There may be a very early reaching of the climax, but at that level of the show can be retained longer in the fight against climate change, » he warns whether heila from the Asian Social Policy Institute (ASPI).

What will follow after possible peak depends on many factors, both domestic and those in the world.

LI says that the unsteadiness on the world’s oil market, caused by events such as the war in Ukraine, in recent years, further encouraged the Chinese authorities to ensure the country’s energy security.

China restarted the coal again, which he is abundant.

« If geopolitical earthquakes continue, I think that China will insist on its energy security, which will be a serious challenge for energy transition in the country, » does it say.

However, Kristof Nedopil Wang, director of the Asian Institute at Griffi University in Australia, believes that the pursuit of energy security can go in both directions.

In addition to the rich coal reserves, China is the leading country in the world in the field of clean technologies, among which include wind turbines and solar panels, he points out.

« Reducing imports due to higher reliance on renewable energy sources actually increases the national security of China ».

Nedopil Wang also doubts that trading tensions with the United States will induce Chinese authorities to encourage growth in a way that would lead to a new increase in carbon dioxide emissions.

He believes that decision-making in China believe that the drivers of the economy are just sectors that have small emissions, such as information technologies, biotechnology, electric vehicles, and pure technology, and will most likely encourage the development of these sectors.

« These sectors really moved the center of gravity of the Chinese economy than industries that are great pollutants, » he says.

« I don’t see China planning a massive extension of old industrial branches, such as steel production. »

Are required for permanent climatic efforts

All experts quoted in this text agree that China has significantly slow down the growth of carbon dioxide emissions, regardless of whether it also means a permanent reduction in emissions.

However, China should meet both international obligations regarding carbon dioxide emissions.

China obliged to the Parisia to 2030. To reduce its carbon dioxide emission coefficient for more than 65 percent compared to the level in 2005. years.

Carbon dioxide emission coefficient is a mass of emitted carbon dioxide into the atmosphere reduced to the power of energy.

During the pandemic of the Koron Virus, China significantly deviated from this obligation, because in that period, it relied on energy intensive industrial production more.

If the largest carbon dioxide broadcaster gave up the main international climate obligation, it would be a serious blow for multilateral climate action.

Now, the only chance of China to fulfill this goal is to constantly reduce emissions until 2030. years, Lauri Milivirt considers.

It adds that the reduction of emissions that have so far been determined is just the beginning, and that it is necessary to set ambitious goals and solve measures determined.

In the coming months, the climate policy of China will be at the center of attention.

The United Nations Conference on Climate Changes COP30 will be held in Brazilian City Belem in November, and China will present the updated objective package in the Paris Agreement before the event.

As the administration of American President Donald Tramp is not in favor of multilateral climate collaboration, China is trying to set as a world leader in combating climate change.

At a conference on climate change in April, President of China Si Djinping said world leaders: « Instead of talking stories, we need to act …

« We need to turn our goals into tangible results. »

That is why China will probably not want to get the impression that he gives up the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emission coefficient, which is its most important international climate obligation.

If the Šuo from the Asian Social Policy Institute says that in the preparation of new goals in the fight against climate change, the Chinese authorities account for and what will be thinking about the international community.

« The complex set of factors will take into account, including, of course, their own climatic ambitions, but also geopolitical circumstances and how the world will look at China. »

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