Anti-Dazi refreshments, an almost financial 25 billion: who will go and how? The « weight » of Europe

Twenty -five billion correspond almost to a financial one. They are a nice figure. To have announced it Coram Populo in the green room of the meetings with the social partners was Giorgia Meloni on Tuesday 8 April. The meeting was convened to reflect on the issue of duties and the premier made the void with a surprise ad. According to his words 14 of the 25 billion to be allocated in favor of the companies should be recovered « among the folds of the PNNR » And remodeled to support employment and increase productivity, the other 11 should be reprogrammed within the funds provided for cohesion pacts and the energy and climate plan. Obviously to conduct an operation of this kind in port it takes a go -ahead from the EU Commissionthat Meloni committed himself to taking home. Even without particular shouts of jubilation, Meloni’s announcement was well welcomed by the organizations of entrepreneurs who not by chance 24 hours before they were expressed through the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini.
In an interview with the « Corriere della Sera » Orsini had asked for extraordinary measures in favor of the companies affected by the duties of Donald Trump and had indicated in the transition portfolio 5.0PNRR and cohesion funds as many treasures to draw on. THEepisode if we want to report once again the very close relationships between Meloni and Orsini And their dense method of consultation, but opens a wider chapter as regards the relationship between government and companies, the quality of transfers and the limits of an industrial policy that we could define à la carte with an understatement.

Opinions in favor

It is true that at least two considerations that play in favor of Meloni’s setting are at least two. The first concerns the fact that first to move on the road of extraordinary funding to businesses, at least in terms of announcement, it was the Spanish premier, the progressive Pedro Sanchez, with a proposal of 14.1 billion. The allocations provided for by the Iberian government would be destined to protect the sectors most affected by duties and therefore steel, olive oil, wine and biocarbubs. The second consideration, more referred to the internal political framework, concerns the substantial sharing of the proposal by the oppositions. None of the adverse parties explicitly underlined Meloni’s move, indeed they accused of delays and immobilisms the government but in essence the map of the 25 billion was shared De facto especially in the PD house where a mobilization campaign is underway in the districts and listening to the production classes.

After the absence

But after the subsequent Trump move that has at least frozen the duties towards Italian production for 3 months, the announcement Meloni must be considered still valid or will it be also put in the freezer? The Official sources of the Mimit, the ministry competent for relations with companies, confirm that the 25 billion card will not be withdrawn. And also in Confindustria there is the same sentiment. On the duties side it is difficult today to predict the outcome of the negotiations with the USA and the interviews with Trump, but it is taken for granted that the status quo of the rates will still be changed in the direction that the offensive of the American government has overwhelmingly indicated. Consequently, for the refreshments announced by Meloni it can be thought that the nut is taken even if the operation is still to be defined in the approval process, in the definition of the audiences concerned and in the methods of disbursement of the aid.
The first step, as already mentioned, will be represented by Brussels conditioning. Knowing that as regards propensity to debt, it is evident that Italy has a different reputation from Spain asking for the ok to spend its 14.1 billion.
Will the EU authorities be willing to encourage those « remodelings » and those « reprogramming » asked by Meloni? At stake there is compliance with the discipline on state aid and therefore green traffic lights are needed by the EU. A year and a half ago there had already been a remodeling and consequently to Mimit are confident, but dismantling De facto transition 5.0 – tool launched to cope with both transitions – and cutting public works provided by the PNRR are not painful choices in the eyes of the commissioners. It is true, as the Italian authorities and technicians will support that that money would not be able to spend it in time, but also in this case the motivation does not appear particularly virtuous. As the idea of ​​spending the funds born in the key of Europeanist relaunch (the PNRR) is not very linear to buffer the Trump offensive which instead wants to suffocate the EU. The idea of ​​fishing from the cohesion fund and climate background should prove to be easier for « spending vehicles » that have no stringent constraints, but only presuppose a concertation with the regions concerned.

The stakes to consider

Continuing on the path of the provision of possible refreshments, the reflections made on the government level regarding the audience of companies that can be « wet » by the new funding are interesting. At first the hypothesis had been assessed that the 25 billion could go to support the exporting companies directly affected by the American tariffs, But immediately afterwards we changed his mind. In fact, a measure would have arisen that would have favored only the so -called pocket multinationals, in essence that qualified minority of companies that export largely and that have allowed us to reach absolute exploits in the field of sales abroad.
But a measure of this type would have proved to be widely unpopular, He would have split the front of the companies and left the other companies outside the refreshments, non-exporters, but seriously involved by sector crises such as in the automotive, textile-clothing and appliances. Last but not least, Confindustria herself would have put in difficulty and generated the reaction of the associations of children.
With what ways the new aid will be disbursed? On the subject there are very few certainties. Orsini had spoken of public contributions to investments to the extent even 30%, but the feeling is that in the event of a green light from Brussels, the commission technicians will indicate a package of measures that will be authorized.
Call them if you want « stakes », but it will be necessary to wait with some anxiety given the recent negative experiences made, due to the formal drafting of the measures, precisely with transition 5.0 and with the reward IRES.
The industries obviously expect broad -shirt indications, you want to support almost any type of investment, you want to avoid bureaucratic contraindications. But it is a game that has just begun.