An important test for populism in Central Europe and what is the fine for spying with Pegasus
- There are two surprises of the week: the choice of a little known American for pope and the first stumble At the very beginning, the vote of a new Chancellor of Germany. The victory of George Simion in the first round of the presidential vote is important, but it is not surprising.
- The United States has achieved the first deal With the other country (UK) to avoid Donald Trump’s duties. But London has always been in a privileged position because of his strong positions in Washington, and many details are not known about the agreement.
- Almost 50 leading companies in Germany have taken responsibilitythat they have brought the Nazis to power =
- Albania vote on Sunday A US company also worked with President Donald Trump also appeared here in a contract with the opposition, former prime minister and president, Sally Berisha.
- Bulgarians convicted of espionage in favor of Russia in London again returned to the news with another revelations by the prosecutor’s office about their activities. On Monday, 12.05, the size of the sentence will be announced, with almost certain everyone will receive more than 10 years in prison.
- The two British friends can receive up to 10 years in prison because of « idiotic mission » – They cut off a world -famous tree to a UNESCO protected object that they also filmed video how they were doing it. This « act of deliberate and meaningless criminal disability » is against the Yavor tree over 100 years to the wall of the Roman emperor Adrian, known as Sycamore Gap Tree.
Focus
An important test for the rise of nationalism and Euroscepticism in Central Europe is forthcoming
Next Sunday (18.05.) There are elections in three countries, such as presidential in Romania and Poland they seem more important as consequences than parliamentary in PortugalS The results in Bucharest and Warsaw will show how far the final Eurosceptic and often anti -European right wins new territories in Central Europe and Will the Victor Orban and Robert Fico group expandS
The dissatisfaction with traditional parties, the role of the EU in Romania and the Romanians in the EU plus the copying of many of the slogans of Donald Trump will seem to bring to power the nationalist George SimionS The powers of the Romanian president are wider than those in Bulgaria, and it is very likely that he will try to cause a parliamentary election soon. Simion as President and Kalin George as Prime Minister will not be the most enjoyable combination for a neighbor in Bulgaria.
Since Slobodan Milosevic, in the 1990s, she has not had an extremely nationalist power in the neighborhood and another one will be added to the problems with Northern Macedonia.
Pro -European parties in Sofia are yet to have to build channels for communication with the new power in Bucharest, incl. Because she is in a European political family, in which only one MEP participates from « There is such a people ».
If the business in Romania reacts with a withdrawal and the economy is torn, the first visible effect will be the decline of Romanian tourists at sea in Bulgaria.
In Poland Warsaw Mayor has a good chance of becoming president And so the government of Donald Tusk will finally be able to deal with more active policies in both the country and abroad. But here, too, a surprise is not theoretically.
In October 2023, the civic platform coalition won the parliamentary elections, but not the three fifth of the deputies needed to overcome the presidential veto, and the head of state is Angje Duda of the national-conservative « law and justice » (PIS). Thus, the power of Warsaw for a year and a half takes careful steps, incl. In foreign policy, until he also secured a representative in the Presidential Palace.
So Tusk’s bet rushed to a factual referendum On May 18 (and the second round on June 1) for its management. Rafal Trzhaskovsky would bring a sigh of relief in Europe. But the victory of the Ultra -Carol Carol Narotsky would interrupt the attempt to dismantle the PIS system and would demonstrate that A new wave of authoritarian aspirations begins in the areaS
Outsider Slavomir Menzen – a Pro -Ramsel ultranationalist who lit the EU flag – can be an important role in the run -off. Moscow’s misinformation campaign also lifted the turnover on social networks, anti -Ukrainian and anti -immigrant mood grow, and on stage they sneak and ideas coming from the new administration in Washingtonwho seems to feel more comfortable with a pro-American but anti-European president of Poland.
A study of April 25 showed nearly 32% for Truzhaski, 27.6% for Narotsky and over 11% for Menzen.
Under the spotlight
What is Paul Singer looking for in Bulgaria
Paul Singer is a Bachelor of Psychology from the University of Rochester and a law degree from the Harvard Law Faculty (4 years practiced in corporate law firms and investment bank before establishing Elliott). But its power is Wall Street, and especially in the discovery of companies and governments in stress. According to data from February 13, 2025, Elliott manages discretion assets (AUM) in the amount of $ 97.37 billion and is thought to be around one third of them are in the category of problematic but with potentialwhich Singer people know how to develop.
He is not from the « pirates » on the stock exchange, but is defined as vulture capitalist (Rather, a word play with Venture entrepreneurs than creating a negative image of « vulture »).
Singer has built a reputation of Wall Street with its aggressive tactics, which often generate considerable value for shareholders by operating weaknesses in different asset classes (from delayed companies to extremely problematic government debt).
In February 2025, he said in the podcast « in a good company with Nikolai Tangen » What is the reason for the bad investment: « Sometimes it is bad luck, but it is more often (that) something is missed. Or it is not hedged or not done properly. The worst deals are those in which you misunderstand the risk. »
There is also a possible explanation for his interest in the Turkish Stream – or makes a maneuver (and may be a very serious business intention) for the benefit of the Russians by winning Trump’s efforts to stop them in Ukraine, or helps the White House (Last) of East (L, with the West (L « Gazprom »).
Just a business in search of an attractive high yield for the shareholders and customers of Elliott.
The number of the week
167 250 000
This is a fine in dollars (plus Meta $ 444 719 Recovery of Judicial Costs) that US court imposed on Israeli NSO Group because its spying product Pegasus has been used without permission For more than 1,400 users users.
Meta has been running the 2019 case. It is not over because the Israelis selling their product in Europe can appeal.
Citizen Lab has found a vulnerability that allows the spyware provider to install Pegasus by phone call – even if users do not pick up the call. Pegasus can then include the camera’s camera and microphone, review emails and text messages, and get access to location information.
The hacker attack has been directed to activists, journalists, diplomats and othersS Apple also sues NSO Group for attacking iPhone users with Pegasus.
The Graph of the Week
| It seems like the Romanian Leia exchange rate compared to the euro in the last 7 days. On the left is the last day of trading on the stock exchange on Friday before the election, in the middle is the collapse on Monday after The results of the first round of the presidential election and the solid (with about 20 percentage points) lead to George Simion.
The Central Bank in Bucharest spend billions of euros and dollars to stabilize the currency at a lower level. If on 18.05. Simion won and the run-off will probably have another reaction down, but it is more likely that she has already been traded on the exchanges and is not so dramatic. |
And something else
Who will inherit Manchinelli
There is hardly a more famous « model » for his clothes – there is no one to replace the first appearance of Leo XIV on the balcony of St. Peter in the Manchinelli garment. The Borgo Pio’s studio sews for priests, bishops and cardinals for 70 years and 7 popes. He personally sewed for three, incl. For the late Francis.
Raniero is 86 years old, so even if Leo XIV chooses him as his tailor, the question remains.
Next 7 days
10.05. – US and China are negotiating in Geneva to « break ice » in relationships; Rather, an attempt to truce in the trade war is expected than a breakthrough, the senior Chinese security officer is present, ie. The fantanyl and precursors that enter the United States will probably be a leading topic
11.05. – Participants in the Eurovision Finals will go through the « Turquoise Carpet » in Basel earlier this week at the world’s most watched competition in the world
12.05. – Parliamentary elections in Albania
13.05. – EU Financial Ministers Council will discuss a € 150 billion loan loan mechanism for defense investments, which companies and outside the Union will be able to participate
13.03. -The 78th Cannes Film Festival begins, which is also the biggest world event of the year
14.05. – a two -day informal meeting in Antalya of NATO’s foreign ministers
14.05. – Donald Trump starts from Qatar a three -day tour of the Gulf region
15.05. – Meeting in the tyrant of the European political community of 47 countries.
