An American-Ukrainian trap for Putin?

The Trump administration has changed its optics on the conclusion of the Ukraine war. From the pressure on Ukraine to accept a broad peace agreement negotiated by Russia and America, starting from the terms of Moscow, now the US is trying to force Russia to accept an intermediate phase until the political agreement it follows – an immediate cessation of fire for 30 days.

The change took place after the discussions in Saudi Arabia between the Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Ukrainian presidential counselor Andriy Yermak. « The ball is now in the field of Russia. » « If Moscow will refuse, we will unfortunately know what the impediment is in the path of peace, » said the US Secretary of State, and his statement was then resumed by several European leaders.

The understanding of Jeddah between the US and Ukraine and Marco Rubio's statement really seem a step forward, but this only if Russia was just a conventional power, not much more developed than Ukraine and only if the open conflict between the two countries did not have a history of over ten years.

The « offer » made by the USA and Ukraine Russia comes with zero concessions for Moscow and with many benefits for Ukraine – resuming American weapons and resuming information exchange (in fact, US military support has only ceased paper, for a few days, shortly after the disastrous meeting at the White House, on February 28 Trump and Volodimir Zelenski). In other words, if Russia does not accept a cessation of fire, the United States will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons. And if Russia accepts the ceasefire, the US will continue to supply Ukraine with frames, and the Kiev army would have the time to regroup.

Seen from this angle, the proposal to cease fire in Ukraine can be considered a trap for Putin's Russia: its acceptance would mean accepting Ukraine's military armor, while the refusal would give the European allies in NATO, the justifications it needs to put pressure on the Trump administration to continue the arrying of Ukraine, Russia. All while Europe undertakes to take over much of the burden of conflict on the US shoulders and pass it on their own citizens.

The proposal to cease fire comes in the context in which Russia advances throughout the front line, and Ukraine is barely clinging to a small part of the Russian region Kursk. An acceptance of the cessation of fire by Moscow means the acceptance of the extension of the Ukrainian occupation in Kursk and the beginning of possible peace negotiations starting from this reality.

Moscow repeated the conditions for the cessation of the war: the neutrality of Ukraine, the recognition of the annexation by Russia of four oblasts plus Crimea, the « denazification » of the Kiev regime. A few days before the US-Ukraine discussions in Saudi Arabia, President Volodimir Zelenski expressed his opposition to any territorial concessions, while Ukraine's European allies (except Hungary) agreed on a strategy of increasing the military capabilities of Ukraine, to strengthen the possible position with Russia. That is, no territorial concession and strong security guarantees from Europe, including with troops of European allies on the territory of Ukraine. It is hard to believe that Russia can accept these conditions, especially since it is now on the offensive in Ukraine.

Saying that « the ball is in the field of Russia », the Secretary of State Rubio showed either that the negotiations so far with Moscow were not exactly sincere, that the great quarrel in the Oval Office between the Ukrainian and American leaders was directed, or that the Washington neoconservative camp managed to impose itself in front of Trump.

The conflict in Ukraine did not start 2022, but in 2014. The history of this conflict shows that Ukraine has always had to gain from prolonged negotiations and cessation of fire. In 2014, Minsk 1 agreement was concluded when thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded on the Donbas front. In 2015, when the Ukrainians were under pressure in Debalțevo, negotiations were requested and Minsk's agreement was requested. And in 2022, when the Russian troops had arrived around Kiev, the Ukrainian leaders began to negotiate at the Instanb. Now, when Ukraine loses in Kursk (many non -conservative analyzes have seen the small « pocket » occupied by Ukraine as an important book in Ukraine's sleeve in future negotiations), Kiev again demands ceasing fire and negotiations.

In addition, after leaving politics, former Chancellor Angela Merkel said the West did not follow at any time that Ukraine would comply with the Minsk agreements, which were seen as a tactic meant to win the Ukrainian army by the western allies.

There are reasons why Moscow has repeated that he will only accept a political peace agreement, which will involve not only Ukraine, but also the security architecture of Europe – that is, what Russia believes is the cause of the War in Ukraine.

The position of the Kremlin was ambiguous, immediately after the end of the American-Ukrainian consultations. Russian officials have stated that he is waiting for details from Washington regarding the proposal to cease fire, for Russia being essential to consider the advance made by the Russian army in Ukraine. A high -ranking Russian official told Reuters that President Putin will be difficult to accept a ceasefire in the current form, because Russia is advancing in Ukraine.

However, there is also the possibility that the United States will convince Russia to swallow the ceiling of fire, sweetening it with a relaxation of the sanctions imposed on Moscow. When this question was asked, the spokesman Dmitru Peskov did not disable.