After verdict, Marine Le Pen cannot be a presidential candidate in 2027, but: « I don’t let myself be eliminate »

On Monday morning, Marine Le Pen (56) tries to radiate serenity. When the radical-right politician arrives at the Paris court, she smiles at the cameras of the more than two hundred journalists who have gathered for the ruling in the Megarrechts case about tampering with European money against Le Pen and 24 party members. Before she takes a seat on the crowded suspect benches, she apparently greets her lawyers relaxed. As if she wants to radiate: no reason to worry, I am harmless, right?

Two hours later there is nothing left of that serenity. If the chairwoman of the court says that prison sentences are justified, Le Pen will sit forward. If the judge explains that a ban on candidacy is also appropriate in elections, the politician shakes softly Non, Non, Non. If the judge says that that punishment will immediately go into it – even if the suspects appeal – Le Pen stands up and she is sitting out the court. Her punishment is not even pronounced.

It follows half an hour later: the foreman of the Rassemblement National is sentenced to four years in prison (of which two years are conditional, the other two with a freedom -restricting ankle strap) and may not be eligible for election for five years. The other suspects, including party prominent people such as Louis Aliot, were also imposed major penalties. The verdict means that Marine Le Pen cannot be a candidate with the important presidential elections of 2027. A statement that means a landslide for Le Pen, for her party, for France: Le Pen had good papers to become the first radical-right president of France in two years.

A small but important nuance: there is a chance that it will not come that far and will be on the ballot in 2027. Le Pen is expected to start an emergency procedure at the Constitutional Council to make the immediate effect of the punishment of non-soundability disappear. And the politician appeals. « I am combative, I don’t let myself be eliminate. » In theory, that case could take place before the presidential elections in April 2027. However, that chance is not very high considering the slowness of the French Justice. Moreover, there is a huge package of evidence that does not disappear on appeal.

Wilders, Musk, Kremlin

After her abrupt departure from the courtroom, Le Pen stopped for hours – on Monday evening she responded for the first time in a television interview. There she fiercely took it to court: « The motivation of the chairman of the court is clear: » I don’t want Marine Le Pen to be president.  » Le Pen said he was particularly shocked about the court’s decision to make the punishment of non-soundability go into immediately. « The rule of law is being violated, » says Le Pen, because she does not get the chance to return to the situation as before the court case.

She also immediately seized the moment to make the possible political opponent who could win in 2027 in advance. « Suppose I am acquitted after the presidential election (on appeal), what is the legitimacy of the person who is elected during that election? »

Her anger is shared by other radical-right politicians in France and far beyond. Le Pens Kroonprins and RN party chairman Jordan Bardella speaks of « the execution of democracy » and calls for demonstrations. PVV leader Geert Wilders is « Shocked »Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán Tweet “Your Suis Marine« . The American tech billionaire Elon Musk Fulminates that « if radical left cannot win through democratic elections, they abuse the legal system to imprison their opponents. » The Kremlin – not exactly a beacon of democracy – says through spokesperson Dmitri Peskov that the statement « is contrary to democratic values. » More moderate politicians were also shocked. Prime Minister François Bayrou – Die last year In a similar case, it was acquitted for lack of evidence, his party members were convicted – seems to be behind the scenes have said That he is ‘worried’ by the statement.

The discourse in which Marine Le Pen is the victim of a political process will be shared by at least part of Le Pens supporters, also because it coincides with its defense of the past months. Le Pen stated that there was a political process that she was innocent, or she minimized her own role. Many of her now very loyal voters will believe in this, despite the many pages of evidence that the opposite show – but not always reaching the media, let alone the communication channels of the RN.

Because there is evidence that Between 2004 and 2016, Le Pen and its party members were destroyed more than 4 million euros, which was intended for the payment of the assistants of European Parliamentarians, and then party employees who had nothing to do with Brussels. Several employees who were on the payroll as an assistant to a MEP had another full-time job within the party in France, who would have been impossible to combine (such as Le Pens Lijpwacht recently deceased father and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen).

There is evidence that some people were not in Brussels in Brussels in the time that they worked formally for the European Parliament. An overview has also been found that shows how money intended for the payment of assistants from European Parliamentarians was distributed between Le Pens Parte employees (then called Front National (FN)) who had nothing to do with Brussels.

The central role of Le Pen from the moment she became a party chair in 2011 is, according to the judge and ready. This is evident, among other things, from an e -mail in which the party treasurer talks to Le Pen about « Saving costs thanks to the European Parliament » and an email exchange between the treasurer and an employee in which the latter states: « This means that we sign for fictional jobs, » and the treasurer answers: « I believe that Marine knows that. » There are also testimonials that Le Pen personally elected MEPs of MEPs that they had to give part of the money intended for their assistants to cover costs in France. According to the judge, the poor party at the time was able to stand up thanks to this « by Mrs. Le Pen optimized system ».

The fact that the judge opted for a punishment of inaugurability with immediate effect has major consequences, but does not come out of nowhere. She takes along that Le Pen and her party members have trained the investigation, in the court case always contradicted themselves and not a sign of repentance. « It shows contempt for the regulations of the European Parliament and opposite the laws of the French Republic. » The judge emphasized that during the trial, moreover, facts were denied  » – as the aforementioned emails – and even evidence were forged (fake reports were drawn up that would have made the ‘assistants’ as ‘evidence’ that they actually performed tasks that suited the role of parliamentary assistant).

« The risk of recurrence is there, » the judge, who also fears « unrest in the country » if someone who was initially convicted of such serious facts can be eligible in presidential elections. She also stated that Le Pen and her co -suspects have disadvantaged French voters and undermined « democracy, equality and rule of law. »

Protests and follow -up

In the short term, the question is how the anger about this statement will manifest: it will remain with hashtags such as #jesoutiensmarine (‘I support Marine’) and the ‘peaceful demonstrations’ where Jordan Bardella calls, or can the statement flare up an already smolder fire that feels systematically disadvantaged? In recent years, the fear has often been expressed that society-ricking protests such as those who can return during the yellow Hesjes protests of 2018 and 2019, and this statement could be a wick in the powder barrel.

Le Pen himself seems to assume that her supporters are as militant as herself. « Millions of French is taken away from the presidential candidate who is (according to polls) the favorite, » she said on television. « When I am eliminated, millions of French are eliminated. » She also stated that if the appeal is in time and she is convicted, but may be eligible, she would also « naturally » participate in the elections with a conviction.

In the longer term it will be interesting to see what role Le Pen can still play within the party that she and her father have brought so far. For the time being, Le Pen can stay as a parliamentarian, but there is a chance that parliament will be dissolved in the summer and there will be new parliamentary elections. If that happens, Le Pen cannot stand for election there either.

The viability of the party itself is also put to the test: can it endure the test of time without the convicted party prominent people and especially without Marine Le Pen as a foreman? A successor is already ready: some robot -like crown prince Jordan Bardella (29). For him it speaks that he is particularly popular: according to one Ipsos poll He is even the most popular politician of the moment (just before Marine Le Pen) and especially young people love him. It also helps Bardella that he does not bear the last name Le Pen-who, because of Jean-Marie Le Pens Extremism, is still boshing fear with older French people.

But Bardella is also significantly less experienced and a less talented debater than his mentor. Within the party there are great concerns about whether he could follow her. Marine Le Pen does not want to think about it yet, turned out to be with her TV interview. « Jordan Bardella is a formidable addition to our movement. Hopefully we will not have to use this addition until necessary. »

(This article was supplemented at 8.45 pm with the reaction of Marine Le Pen in a TV interview)

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