After the decision of the Central Bank, the Moscow Exchange Index rolled below 2800 points
The decision of the Bank of Russia to reduce the rate to 20% caused a violent reaction of market participants. After the announcement of the Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX: MoEx) flew by 2.6%, exceeding the first time from mid -May, the level of 2900 points. However, the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina quickly cooled the ardor of investors, and according to the results of the main session, the index lost 2.5%, rolling up below 2800 points. In relation to the immediate prospects of the stock market, experts speak out carefully, although they are waiting for new steps of the Central Bank to reduce the key rate.
Trading on the Moscow Exchange on June 6 in the morning passed quite calmly. According to the Reuters survey, conducted at the beginning of the week, two -thirds of 26 analysts and economists surveyed expected to preserve the rate at 21%, six waited for a decrease to 20%and one to 19%.
However, the nervousness was clearly growing, and five minutes before the announcement of the decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank for shares of a number of issuers (peak, “plane”, AFK “system” and others), a sales wave passed, which collapsed their quotes by 4-5%. A minute to the publication of the Medved key rates, they reached the “blue chips” (Sberbank, Gazprom, Yandex, T-Technologies), the shares of which lost 1.2–3.7%in price. As a result, the Moscow Exchange index fell 1.3%, to 2836.43 points. However, the news that the Central Bank went for softening, reducing the rate by 1 p., Up to 20%, caused a positive reaction of market participants. The index jumped 2.6% and for the first time from mid -May rose above the level of 2900 points, reaching 2910.52 points.
Just for a long time, the investors were not enough for the investors. Moreover, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullin at a press conference did not exclude an increase in the key rate in case of inflation growth.
The IMOEX index confidently decreased, and at the closure of the main session it dwelled at the mark of 2786.16 points, 2.5% lower than the closure of the previous day. The quotes of the « blue chips » lost 1.5–2%. The volume of trading on the shares of the index exceeded 154 billion rubles, record value in two months.
The tough rhetoric of the regulator was unequivocal disappointment for the market, as the market participants expected to soften it. As the managing director of the Renaissance Capital Dmitry Alexandrov notes, « having received a fairly tough signal, the market accelerated its fall. » At the same time, the leaders of the decrease were shares of companies whose business is highly dependent on the level of bets (peak, “plane”), as well as issuers with high debt load (AFK “System”, “Segezha”), the shares of which were sagged by 4-5%.
Negatively reacted to the comments of the head of the Central Bank and the debt market. As a result of the profitability of OFZ with a circulation period of 1-3 years, almost 0.5 p., To 15.9-17.1% per annum, on medium -term papers, the yield increased by 0.3 p., To 15.2–15.4% per annum.
Reducing the rate and the expectation of its further adjustment has not yet influenced the courses.
- Yuan, who began on Friday exchange auction from confident growth (up to 11.07 rubles/CNY), after the announcement of the decision of the Central Bank, went down. According to the results of the auction, he dwelled at the mark of 10.9 rubles/CNY, which is 4 kopecks. Above on Thursday closure.
- The dollar exchange rate at the end of the day stopped just above 79 rubles/$.
According to the head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, Vladimir Evstifeev, in the context of monitoring the movement of the capital “LAG LAG, the transmission mechanism for an exchange rate can reach one year”. Therefore, the current reaction of the currency market is more likely speculative. “For the Russian currency, the influence of geopolitical and fundamental factors will remain more important. Both speak not in favor of further strengthening the ruble, so the course of the national currency is more likely to complete the year at levels above 90 rubles./$>, – Mr. Evstifeev expects.
In general, its participants are positive in relation to the stock market. Igor Kozak, Managing Director of Investments, Igor Kozak, does not exclude that in the near future the index can grow up to 3000–3100 points, “a wait -and -see position will form” up to the next meeting of the Central Bank. Mikhail Vasiliev, Chief Analyst of the Socialist Republic of Council of People’s Commissars, does not exclude that at a meeting on July 25, the Central Bank can reduce the rate by 100-200 b. p., up to 18-19%. “In the coming months, inflation will continue to slow down, and inflationary expectations will resume a decrease,” he said. According to Natalia Pyryeva, a leading analyst in the investment company “Tsiper Broker”, in the absence of stability in a disinflation trend, the Bank of Russia can maintain a rate at the current level. However, by the end of the year, the expert is waiting for its reduction to 16-17%.
