After all it was not everything in the same
It was a total turnaround in Portuguese political life. The arrival is probably the second Portuguese party (after counting the votes of emigration, where in the last elections won the PS). The Socialist Party, for the first time in 51 years of democracy, is reduced to third place.
After these elections, Portugal turns right as never before had happened. Montenegro can have more deputies alone than the whole left together. The result is robust, but it is not an absolute majority, nor with the sum of the deputies of IL the block on the right, excluding the arrival, because of the ‘not no’, Montenegro can reach the absolute majority. It is quite the image of the turnaround that these elections brought to Portuguese political life.
It is likely that the next government is a kind of Adil, we do not know if in the scope of a parliamentary agreement, or a government agreement. Not being a majority solution, it is the possible solution and, after the fright of these elections, it is likely that the remaining parties have a lot of caution to precipitate new crises. All added, and with the perspective that the new President of the Republic will be more prudent with political crises than Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, it is possible that the Adil government can last much more than we can predict. Perhaps even the 4 years of the legislature.
“We multiply for 10 the distance between the first and the second,” with these words, Luís Montenegro justified the reading of the elections, and added, “except for an alliance between the PS and the arrival, which does not seem believable”, there is no alternative than an AD government. Pedro Nuno Santos, in the meantime, fired as inevitable after the disastrous result.
What will you get out of here? Only in the coming days will it be perceived. With the PS in Fanicos, Montenegro asks for the prudence of not thinking only in the immediate future. There is a future in the medium and long term that needs to be safe. The arrival is really around the corner and the founding parties of democracy must, despite the circumstances, have a sense of responsibility under penalty of putting themselves on the edge of the abyss
Montenegro has linked “Now let Luis work”, but left the note that “everyone should be able to dialogue and put the national interest above any other interest”, will it turn to the PS or the arrival? It is the unknown that is in the air. One thing is certain, Montenegro won, but there is no absolute majority and this forces him to negotiate. If you bet everything on keeping in the dangerous balance of recent months, you may be playing a suicidal game. It did well to widen the “larger majority” with the liberal initiative. It would give it more strength to endure the government for the legislature.
