A major political risk for Zelenski regime

At the second round of negotiations in Istanbul, earlier this month, Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange inanimate bodies of the military who fell on the front – 6,000 bodies on each side. The dispute that started with the first stage of this exchange shows how difficult it will be for Ukraine to honor the compensations that have committed to pay to the families of the fallen military, as well as their identification.

Earlier this week there was a dispute between Moscow and Kiev, after Russian officials accused the Ukrainians of not raising 1,200 bodies waiting in refrigerated trucks, on the border with Belarus. Moscow claims that the exchange of 1,200 against only 25 shows how big the losses of Ukraine are. Kiev accused Russia of « dirty games ».

The identification of the corpses is extremely difficult, because entire parts of the body are often missing, and the identification plates disappear from the explosions. In an article for Responsible Statecraft, British diplomat Ian Proud shows that identifying the victims of the 2004 Tsunami lasted two years and involved an intense activity from the specialists, impossible under war conditions.

Another big problem for the Kiev regime is the huge cost of families. In Social Media, the amount of $ 2.1 billion was conveyed for only the 6000 fallen soldiers in the struggle that are the object of the Istanbul agreement. The amount is wrong, writes Ian Proud. In September 2024, the Government of Ukraine decided to offer families 544,000 for a death on the front. It would mean $ 3.6 billion only for the 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The most optimistic estimate of Ukrainian losses at the end of last year was 80,000 dead. However, the figure can be much higher. Add 50,000 disappeared or unidentified Ukrainians and 43,000 military persons about President Zelenski said they died in December. Only for 100,000 dead, the compensation should be $ 54.4 billion.

The same sources used by Ian Proud accounted for 480,000 Ukrainian military. The government offers between 180,000 and $ 290.00 for the injured or who remain with disabilities. If the severity of wounds and disabilities were average, these military should receive over $ 40 billion. If gravity were the highest, the government should offer about $ 80 billion.

For comparison, the Kiev government gathers about $ 48 billion annually. « Those who believe that Ukraine will not ask for the support of the western donors to pay these compensations only deceive themselves, » writes Ian Proud. In the unlikely scenario in which the families of the fallen military would receive these compensations, the big question concerns how they will be paid: in cash (which could come out of Ukraine) or in Ukrainian assets whose value will depend on the reconstruction of the country and the economy.

The huge cost of these compensation reflects the high recruitment difficulties. The same thing is demonstrated by the money that the military on the front receive – $ 4,593 a month (ten average wages in Ukraine), to which are added $ 1,700 for every 30 consecutive days on the front. These amounts can generate serious political risks for the Kiev regime, if the war would end, because the military would no longer be in combat missions, and the balance for those who are now the front of the front is only $ 494 per month.

« Some commentators say that the Ukrainian government has reason to slow down the identification of the 6000 bodies, to postpone the payment of relatives. It is an excessive simplification, which does not take into account the true dimension of the problems that Ukraine faces. of a war that cannot be won ”.