A deal with Trump becomes a Brexit, it sounds in Brussels: no win-win, but try to limit the worst damage

To keep the last state of affairs in the trade war clear, it was perhaps the best if you had fallen asleep a week ago and now woke up. The diplomat who says it laughs scornfully. It is only half as a joke.

They are used to unpredictability, the policy makers and diplomats in Brussels. But then this weekend was extraordinary. Friday, before 8 a.m., President Donald Trump announced that the European Union would be confronted with much higher import duties on his advice. Not 20 percent, as Trump had previously announced, but 50 percent on all EU exports to the US. And not from July 9, but from 1 June.

« Our conversations with them are not going anywhere! » Trump exclaimed on Truth Social, his own social medium.

Behind macrons of enthusiasm and Meloni’s flight there is nervousness

But that was Friday, a day from a different era. On Sunday, Trump postponed his higher levies until July 9, after a telephone conversation with Ursula von der Leyen, the chairman of the European Commission. Until that time, Trumps tax of 10 percent, which has been in force since April, will remain maintained. This also applies to the higher levies on cars, aluminum and steel.

Europe reacted relieved. The French President Macron was happy with the « good exchange, » he said on Monday. After the telephone conversation, the Spanish foreign minister concluded that the negotiations moved « in the right direction ». Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would even want to organize an extra meeting between a number of EU leaders and Trump in June.

‘Ignore the noise’

But behind macrons of enthusiasm and Meloni’s flight there is also a different feeling: nervousness. Because what remains after so many plot twists? The question divides the diplomat corps in Brussels into optimists and pessimists.

The Optimists saw a bright spot in the newest change of course: Trump finally knows that he must be at Von der Leyen. Sunday’s phone call was the first phone call between the two leaders since Trumps took office; In the meantime, they only spoke briefly with the funeral of Pope Francis. And what about the changeable groceries from the White House? « That is Trump, ignore the noise, » says one of the optimists.

Their main argument: Von der Leyen has bought time. A few weeks of saving can make a big difference is hope. Then the forces of the financial markets, rising costs in the wallet and opinion polls among the American population can do their work. In other words: disrupted markets or angry voters can best repent Trump.

The pessimists see something else: time and good will, two crucial ingredients for a trade agreement, are becoming scarce. Most of the American side requirements- to take on VAT, on safety and quality standards, high European taxes for foodstuffs or to rules for tech companies- are non-discussable for the EU.

A major increase in American exports to the EU is difficult to arrange from above anyway. Export and imports are largely determined by companies and the choices they make on the free market, and not by the limited taxes that the EU and the US raise.

« We hope for the best, but we have to be realistic, » said a pessimist. « The EU likes trade agreements that both sides become better, » says another. « But a deal where we are both better than before Trump was in the White House? Impossible. No, this is like the negotiations about Brexit: the outcome gets worse than it before. No win-win. The best we can drag out is limiting the worst damage. »

A point for the pessimists: no country that has been around with Trump so far, managed to end up under a levy of at least 10 percent. This also applies to the agreement with the United Kingdom, which has been recommended by Trump as « a great deal for both of us ». Howard Lutnick, the American Minister for Trade, seemed to confirm this fear in a conversation with news platform Axios: « 10 (percent) is the lower limit, nobody goes under 10. »

Haagse Giedenjes

This month this month was immediately skeptically responded to the agreement of the Americans and British. « If Europe is offered just as much an agreement if the US has concluded the UK, they can count on countermeasures, » said Swedish Handelsminister Benjamin Dousa.

Outside the Brussels policy machine, that frustration only flared up due to the threats with which Trump waved on Friday. « It must be an eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth, exactly as China did, » suggested Former top officer Jean-Luc Demarty, who negotiated with the Trump trading team on behalf of the EU in 2018, in the French newspaper Libération.

But within the EU towers, such firm statements get few hands on each other. Even the pessimists see little bread in a strategy of hard confrontation. As long as von der Leyen has a list of countermeasures ready, in the event that, continuing to talk has been preferred. The NATO summit in The Hague, with Trump, could become a hotbed for commercial underons.

The European countries have already agreed on taxing American goods with an export value of more than 20 billion euros, with levies of up to 50 percent, Trump was allowed to escalate. In the meantime, a larger package, the size of 95 billion euros, is being discussed, with Boeings and Bourbon as a target. Von der Leyen also alluded to taxing tech companies.

Monday morning, American time, Trump sent a new message through Truth Social into the world: « Landing around the world want to close trade agreements with us. Something great to see! »

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