49 -day windows for negotiations with Trump

When the clock has passed midnight in Washington on Wednesday, the US 104 percent duties came into force on Chinese goods, and 20 percent on the EU. However, it is clear from the CBP’s CBP’s letter that products that are already loaded on ships or aircraft and in transit on the last section to the United States can manage without at least parts of the charges if they reach the limit before 00.01 on May 27. Only then would, for example Swedish companies suffer from the increased customs.

Until then a lot can happen, Not least considering how closely different bids for penalties and countermeasures have been due from and against the White House. For this reason, it is difficult to say about how the country is in 49 days, says lawyer Anders Leissner, expert on international trade on the law firm Vinge.

– It is close at hand to believe that there will be a lot of negotiation in the meantime. The Trump administration has said that some seventy countries are in line and from the EU talk about introducing tariffs in stages. You should definitely think through all the scenarios, but I think it is wise to sit so still in the boat to the extent that you can, because it is rallies that come from the White House, says Anders Leissner.

In a first step, the Union has said that April 15 will activate the 2018 steel and aluminum duties that were suspended after Trump’s previous presidency. During Wednesday afternoon, the member states will vote for steps two and three, which are planned for May 16 and December 1, respectively.

– The impression you get is that it is a kind of game. It can be noted that the EU’s response is much milder, not as aggressive as US customs. It has been reported that European customs will hit approximately EUR 22 billion of the US product value from 2024 and the EU annually imports goods from the US to a value of almost SEK 350 billion, says Anders Leissner.

Part of the game can be The fact that the goods that the EU focuses on are of particular importance to so -called Swing States or states where Trump’s Republicans are strong. An examination from Politico shows that, for example, soybeans, plastic items, metal products and electronics mentioned in this context are important in places such as Louisiana, Kansas, Georgia and Alabama.

Since customs duties do not apply before the decided date, many players in different countries have had the strategy to build up inventories. It has been noticed not least that there has been a lot of activity in the transport area, according to Anders Leissner.

– Another solution may be to find other options, to change delivery chains and other things. However, it can be a bit tricky because there is some circumvention ban. Among other things, the EU has a clear one that was noticed in the case of Harley-Davidson, says Anders Leissner.

– Just motorcycles were covered by customs in 2018 and then parts of production were moved to Thailand on the grounds that it would be cheaper for them. But last winter, the European Court of Justice announced its assessment that relocation was primarily to circumvent the customs duty, which is why the lower customs rate that applied to imports from Thailand would not apply.